[US Presidential Election D-100] Trump Judgment Theory vs Biden Qualification Debate... Unpredictable 'COVID-19 Situation'

Trump Approval Ratings Swallowed by COVID-19
Gap with Biden Widens from 4%p to 15%p
Economic Recovery Urgency Backfires
Biden Builds Trust Wearing Mask
COVID-19 Response Failure Highlights Victory
Will Last-Minute Comeback Like 4 Years Ago Happen?

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Baek Jong-min, Reporter Naju-seok] The COVID-19 pandemic that struck the world has become the biggest variable in the U.S. presidential election. President Trump, who was highly likely to be re-elected, saw his approval ratings sharply decline due to his failure to respond to COVID-19, while candidate Biden is using this as a stepping stone to victory.

It is especially painful that President Trump's incumbent premium has collapsed. The problem was impatience. His anxiety to revive the economy, his greatest achievement, as soon as possible led to a backlash against Trump. The early reopening of the economy caused a vicious cycle of COVID-19 resurgence. In this process, public opinion was divided, and a series of verbal missteps eroded trust in President Trump. In particular, controversies over mask usage and the response after the death of Black man George Floyd further fueled public anger.

On the other hand, candidate Biden has come closer to winning the election thanks to COVID-19 at every critical moment. Biden was initially caught in the Bernie Sanders Senate wave during the early Democratic primary and there were concerns about his possible elimination, but the difficulty of meeting voters in person due to COVID-19 actually helped him. He conveyed an image of caring for the public’s health by wearing a mask, and President Trump's gaffes solidified the perception that he is a 'proper leader.' Also, his response after Floyd's death further solidified his support among Black voters. The early endorsement of Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate by senior Democrats advocating for centrist unity was a driving force that allowed him to focus on campaigning.

This trend is also confirmed in approval ratings. President Trump has never exceeded a 47% job approval rating since taking office. In a recent NBC-Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll, the gap between the two candidates' approval ratings widened to 15 percentage points. In a Washington Post (WP) and ABC News survey, only 38% supported President Trump's COVID-19 response. This is a 13 percentage point drop from 51% in May. U.S. election statistician Nate Silver interpreted that no president since 1940 has been re-elected with a job approval rating below 48%.

'Judgment theory' vs 'Competence theory' = However, such forecasts are merely possibilities. The situation can change at any time in the remaining 100 days. In other words, there is still a chance for President Trump to make a comeback, and it is too early for candidate Biden to be complacent. The vivid memory of the 2016 election, where Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintained a lead in approval ratings until the end but ultimately lost, remains.

During the remaining campaign period, the strategies of both camps can be summarized as Biden's competence theory versus Trump's judgment theory. President Trump is focusing on attacking China to rally his base while continuously delivering the message that 'Biden is not fit to be president.' He keeps criticizing Biden by saying, "He lacks the ability to be president. To be president, you have to be sharp and tough." He also claimed that Biden's ties with China would lead to the U.S. becoming left-leaning if elected. In response, Biden emphasizes that this election should be a referendum on President Trump. Recently, he criticized the current administration's COVID-19 response on his Twitter, stating, "You cannot address the economic crisis without resolving the public health crisis."

Professor Seo Jeong-geon of Kyung Hee University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said, "Elections are divided into choosing between candidates and judging a specific candidate," adding, "Biden wants to frame this election as a judgment on President Trump, while Trump will try to frame it as 'Trump versus Biden.'" Professor Seo said, "If it becomes a judgment election, it will favor Biden, so President Trump will make tremendous efforts to change the election framework."

Future changes in the election campaign are also expected to have a significant impact. In the past, the Republican and Democratic parties held their conventions in July and August to nominate candidates, who then held acceptance speeches as kickoff events. However, this official process became impossible this year. President Trump gave up large-scale rallies and instead chose the familiar TV screen. Trump has experience hosting reality shows in the past. On the other hand, Biden is negative about TV debates.

The two candidates have completely opposite positions on mail-in voting. Biden supports mail-in voting as it increases participation among Democratic-leaning voters, while President Trump opposes it, claiming it could lead to voter fraud. However, Voice of America (VOA) reported that mail-in voting could encourage voting among elderly Republicans, which might be advantageous for President Trump.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.