IHS Markit: "Risk of W-Shaped Recovery in Global Economy Increasing"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] Market research firm IHS Markit has forecasted that due to the resurgence of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), the global economy is more likely to experience a 'W'-shaped rebound rather than a 'V'-shaped one.

According to US CNBC on the 17th (local time), Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, and Sarah Johnson, Director, stated in a recent report that "the new wave of COVID-19 infections reduces the possibility of a V-shaped recovery and increases the risk of a double-dip recession (W-shaped)."

IHS Markit estimated the possibility of a 'W-shaped' recovery at 20%, but expressed concern that "depending on the spread of COVID-19, this risk could increase further in the coming months."

The timing of the second economic downturn is expected to be late this year or early next year, and the depth of the downturn is expected not to be more severe than the first decline.

IHS Markit emphasized, "The worst-case scenario has passed, but the global economic recovery remains weak, and there are additional downside risks."

IHS Markit estimated that the global gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will record -5.5% this year, followed by a rebound of 4.4% next year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.