Poor 5G Performance... A D?j? Vu of 'Odd Generation Slump'?

CDMA Commercialization Blossomed 2G
4G Success Created App Ecosystem
1G Used Brick Phones
Analog Communication 3G Underperformed
No Killer Content Seen in 5G
Network Neutrality B2B Issues Remain Challenges

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] As 5G struggles to find a suitable killer content, concerns about a "deja vu of odd-generation sluggishness" are resurfacing. There is worry that 5G might follow the same path as the odd generations 1G and 3G, which underperformed, while the even generations 2G and 4G (LTE) thrived. While 1G, which used brick-sized devices, and 3G, which promoted analog communication and video calls, failed to gain popularity, the success of 2G, which shone with the commercialization of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA), and LTE, which created the smartphone app ecosystem, supports this precedent.

Slower Subscription Rate than LTE

According to the Ministry of Science and ICT as of the end of May, the number of 5G subscribers in South Korea reached 6.87 million, and it is expected to exceed 10 million by the end of the year. However, issues such as delayed coverage expansion and quality problems are still being pointed out. Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) services, which were expected to be the "killer content" for 5G, have revealed limitations in both devices and content. According to the Ministry’s statistics, 5G gathered 6.87 million subscribers in 13 months. In comparison, LTE, commercialized in 2011, attracted 8.66 million subscribers in the same period and surpassed 7 million within a year, indicating a slower pace for 5G. When LTE was introduced, differentiated services like video streaming emerged, providing incentives to switch from 3G despite higher fees, but 5G has yet to show any standout core content.

The slow nationwide network construction and base station expansion speed are due to 5G not yet finding a "profitable" revenue item. An industry insider said, "Unlike the late 3G period when the smartphone app ecosystem opened and streaming services began to emerge, leading to rapid 4G (LTE) deployment, the transitional phase from 4G to 5G is not showing such trends." They added, "Global operators need to find 5G revenue items, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused delays, and the only killer content market, immersive content, faces many technical limitations." Choi Seong-ho, R&D Policy Manager at the Institute for Information & Communications Technology Planning & Evaluation, said, "Wireless calls dreamed of in the 1st generation became popular in the 2nd generation, and smartphones introduced in the 3rd generation became widespread only in the 4th generation. Similarly, the convergence being prepared in 5G is expected to be completed in 6G."

In the B2B (business-to-business) sector, considered a promising 5G market, unresolved issues around "net neutrality" (the principle that network providers must treat all content equally without discrimination) are slowing 5G innovation. Advanced industries such as AI, smart factories, autonomous vehicles, and remote medical care require the introduction of "network slicing" (technology that divides the network to provide various customized services). However, this conflicts with the net neutrality concept carried over from 4G, causing operators to hesitate to aggressively enter the B2B market due to high uncertainty.

Evaluated by Past Standards of Speed... Should Be Viewed from the Perspective of the 4th Industrial Revolution

Professor Shin Min-su of Hanyang University’s Business Administration Department pointed out, "Ultra-low latency technology of 0.001 seconds is not greatly needed in the B2C (business-to-consumer) market. Ultimately, 5G is a technology suitable from the start for the B2B market, and utilizing the 28 GHz band and the Internet of Things (IoT) band is key." This conflicts with the net neutrality issue that views the network as equally accessible to all, and because this problem remains unresolved, killer content that could propel 5G forward is absent.

While 4G centered on smartphones, 5G is a B2B-focused industry connecting various devices beyond smartphones. Evaluating it solely by past metrics of quantity and speed is problematic. Professor Shin said, "The 1st (steam engine), 2nd (electricity and production lines), and 3rd industrial revolutions (computers and communications) involved mechanical innovations, but the 4th industrial revolution is a concept of convergence that combines all previous technologies." He emphasized, "Rather than expecting a sudden major innovation from 5G, it is necessary to approach it step-by-step by applying technology and reducing regulatory uncertainties."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.