'Stealth Repeated' Kim Jong-un's 19 Public Appearances in First Half of Year... Lowest Since Taking Power

Military Activities Exceed 50% of Total... Limited Public Activities Expected in Second Half of Year

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] It has been revealed that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, had the fewest public activities in the first half of this year, totaling only 19 times. Among these public activities, military-related events accounted for the largest portion with 10 occurrences, while economic-related activities were limited to just 2 times.

According to "Evaluation and Analysis of Chairman Kim Jong-un's Public Activities in the First Half of 2020" by Jang Cheol-woon, Associate Research Fellow at the Unification Policy Research Division of the Korea Institute for National Unification, Kim Jong-un was recorded to have engaged in a total of 19 public activities in the first half of the year after paying respects at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on January 2 to mark the New Year. This count excludes the number of letters sent to foreign leaders such as President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, President Donald Trump of the United States, and President Xi Jinping of China.

Notably, the 19 public activities represent the lowest number for the first half of any year since Kim Jong-un took power. Although the number of public activities in the first half of the year has gradually decreased since peaking in 2013, the drop from around 40 to 50 times during 2017-2019 to just 19 times in 2020 is considered unusual.

Another distinctive feature is the overwhelmingly high proportion of military-related public activities. This year, military-related activities accounted for 52% of the total, amounting to 10 occurrences. Associate Research Fellow Jung explained, "Since the full-scale onset of the spring phase of peace on the Korean Peninsula, the proportion of military-related activities in Kim Jong-un's total public activities was 7% in 2018 and 21% in 2019. The fact that the military sector accounted for more than half of all public activities in the first half of 2020 is unique and noteworthy."

Attention should also be paid to the extremely limited economic activities and the complete absence of external activities such as inter-Korean and diplomatic engagements. Since taking power, Kim Jong-un has maintained the economic sector's share of total public activities at around 20-40%. Although the economic-related public activities were low at 14% in his first year in 2012, this is the first time the proportion has fallen below 10% in the first half of a year.

Furthermore, there were no external public activities related to inter-Korean or diplomatic affairs during the first half. After effectively ending the "parallel development of economic construction and nuclear weapons development" policy initiated in 2013 in April 2018, Kim Jong-un had shown very active external engagements.

Associate Research Fellow Jung analyzed, "The biggest background for these characteristics appears to be concerns over infection from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The concentration of military training observations and military unit inspections in March and April may have been part of winter training observations and expressions of dissatisfaction toward South Korea."

Public activities by Kim Jong-un are expected to remain limited in the second half of the year as well. Due to the need to mobilize relatively large numbers of people, the risk of infection cannot be avoided, making economic-related public activities cautious as well.

Associate Research Fellow Jung explained, "Military unit inspections and military training observations, which are judged to have relatively lower exposure to COVID-19 infection risk, may be easier to carry out, and public activities such as attending various meetings with relatively fewer participants are likely to continue. Given that land, sea, and air borders have been effectively closed to prevent COVID-19 inflow and the situation on the Korean Peninsula is unfavorable, it seems unlikely that Kim Jong-un will resume public activities in inter-Korean and diplomatic fields."

He added, "Kim Jong-un will consider resuming inter-Korean activities only when North Korean authorities judge that the COVID-19 spread trend in South Korea has clearly entered a calming phase. Furthermore, Kim Jong-un will only resume public activities toward South Korea when he judges that conditions have been established for South Korea to implement the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, the September Pyongyang Joint Declaration, and the September 19 Military Agreement, which he and President Moon Jae-in agreed upon in 2018."

Regarding the possibility of a third North Korea-U.S. summit, which has been raised as a possibility, it is also considered unlikely that Kim Jong-un will make public moves. Associate Research Fellow Jung said, "It will not be easy for President Trump, who is focused on the U.S. presidential election amid the raging COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, to change his long-held stance in a short period. Therefore, the likelihood of Kim Jong-un making public moves to hold a third North Korea-U.S. summit before the U.S. election is low."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.