2 PM on the 16th, Presidential Candidate Landscape Shift & President's National Assembly Opening Speech

[Asia Economy reporters Park Cheol-eung and Son Sun-hee] The political sphere is on high alert at 2 p.m. on the 16th. President Moon Jae-in will deliver a speech at the opening ceremony of the 21st National Assembly, held after a month and a half. At the same time, the Supreme Court ruling on Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, a leading presidential candidate following Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Nak-yeon, will be announced. Due to this, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court will not attend the National Assembly opening ceremony.

President Moon is scheduled to give a speech lasting about 30 minutes at the opening ceremony. This will be his first visit to the National Assembly in about nine months since his policy speech on October 22 last year.

In this speech, President Moon is expected to ask the National Assembly for cooperation to overcome the economic crisis caused by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. In particular, he is likely to emphasize the legislative support of the National Assembly to swiftly implement the comprehensive plan for the "Korean New Deal," which was unveiled on the 14th.

Additionally, the speech may include messages on real estate policies, which have recently attracted national attention, and on the North Korea policy to advance the peace process on the Korean Peninsula. He is also expected to urge the prompt establishment of the High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Unit, which has already passed its legal launch deadline.

After the speech and the opening ceremony, President Moon plans to have a separate meeting in the Speaker's office with National Assembly Speaker Park Byeong-seug and other presiding officers, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung, government officials, Democratic Party leader Lee Hae-chan, United Future Party Emergency Committee Chairman Kim Jong-in, Justice Party leader Shim Sang-jung, Democratic Party floor leader Kim Tae-nyeon, and United Future Party floor leader Joo Ho-young.

This is the ninth time a sitting president has delivered an opening speech to the National Assembly since the 1987 constitutional amendment. It is the latest opening ceremony in history, taking place 48 days after the start of the 21st National Assembly's term. Blue House spokesperson Kang Min-seok said, "In the 1987 constitutional system, media reports are calling this the 'latest delayed opening ceremony,' so President Moon's steps toward the National Assembly cannot be light."

The Supreme Court's full bench ruling on Governor Lee Jae-myung concerns the charge of false public statements regarding the forced hospitalization of his elder brother. The verdict, which will determine Lee's political fate, will be broadcast live on TV and YouTube.

If the Supreme Court upholds the lower court's ruling of a 3 million won fine, which results in disqualification from election, Lee will have to step down as governor and will be barred from running for office for five years.

If Lee falls, following former Busan Mayor Oh Keo-don and the late Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, it would be a fatal blow to the Democratic Party. The by-elections in April next year will be a kind of "mini presidential election" involving more than half of all voters, and the Democratic Party will face a disadvantageous situation, which will inevitably affect the presidential election as well. It would be problematic if the presidential race solidifies into a one-top structure with Lee Nak-yeon. It is preferable to have competition that attracts public interest and strengthens political power.

Within the Democratic Party, there are cautious views predicting Lee's survival. One official said, "There are negative opinions about how thorough the lower court's ruling was, and many expect that Lee will avoid the disqualification sentence."

Lee's rising approval ratings, driven by issues like basic income, are also seen as a variable. A political insider said, "Although the introduction of basic income that Lee advocates may lack realism, it draws significant public interest, and because he is perceived as a politician who can achieve results, his approval ratings are rising," adding, "It is not entirely possible to exclude the impact this will have on the ruling."

Lee has faced various personal controversies and legal battles, but if he passes this ruling, he is expected to be freed from constraints and gain more momentum as a presidential candidate.

Chief Justice Kim Myung-soo will not attend the opening ceremony of the 21st National Assembly. The full bench is presided over by the Chief Justice. The ruling date for Lee's case was set on the 13th, before the political sphere agreed to hold the National Assembly opening ceremony at the same time the following month. Typically, the National Assembly opening ceremony invites the president, the Chief Justice, the Constitutional Court Chief Justice, and the Prime Minister.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.