Poland Presidential Election Neck-and-Neck... Exit Polls Show Incumbent President Slight Lead Within Margin of Error

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] The Polish presidential election was held on the 12th (local time), with incumbent President Andrzej Duda slightly ahead of his competitor within the margin of error according to exit polls. Both President Duda and his rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, have declared victory, so the final result is expected to be known only after the last votes are counted.

According to AP News and others, Ipsos exit polls released after the conclusion of the Polish presidential runoff predicted that conservative incumbent President Duda, seeking re-election, would receive 50.8% of the vote, while liberal-leaning Mayor Trzaskowski would receive 49.2%. Earlier figures showed 50.2% and 49.6%, respectively, but were slightly revised. However, with a margin of error of ±2%, it remains difficult to predict the final outcome.

The official counting results are expected to be announced on the afternoon of the 13th or the morning of the 14th. Foreign media initially anticipated results by the morning of the 13th, but due to the narrow gap between the two candidates’ vote shares, it is expected that the counting process will be closely monitored until the end, delaying the announcement. AP described it as "the closest election in Polish history, reflecting serious divisions among European Union (EU) countries." BBC also reported, "It is expected to be the closest presidential election in Poland since the fall of communism in 1989."

Both candidates gave speeches expressing confidence in their victory. President Duda said, "I am pleased with the exit poll results showing my victory," and thanked the voters who supported him. Mayor Trzaskowski stated, "Tonight, when all votes are counted, everyone will be anxious," but emphasized, "I am confident that when all votes are tallied, we will ultimately win."

The Polish presidential election was originally scheduled for May but was postponed due to the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The first round was held on the 28th of last month, but since no candidate secured a majority, a runoff was held between the top two candidates, President Duda and Mayor Trzaskowski. In the first round, President Duda received 43.5% and Mayor Trzaskowski 30.4%, but polls ahead of the runoff predicted a close race due to the consolidation of anti-incumbent forces.

President Duda has been supported by the ruling right-wing nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS), while Mayor Trzaskowski belongs to the main opposition Civic Platform (PO). This election has been seen as a referendum on the policies pursued by the ruling party. If President Duda wins re-election, the ruling party’s control over government affairs will be strengthened, whereas a victory for Mayor Trzaskowski could make the outcome of the next parliamentary election unpredictable.

President Duda enjoys support from conservative voters who value Poland’s traditional Roman Catholic values, mainly in rural areas and small towns. He has publicly opposed homosexuality and has clashed with the EU over judicial reforms. On the other hand, progressive Mayor Trzaskowski is supported mainly by urban residents, young people, and highly educated voters.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.