July 1 Hong Kong Rally Doomed as Hong Kong Security Law Nears Unanimous Passage

- Review of Hong Kong Security Law at the Executive Committee Meeting Held 28-30 Days Ago
- Unanimous Approval Possible in Vote at Closing on the 30th

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Park Sun-mi] At the 20th Standing Committee meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) of China, the review of the "Hong Kong National Security Law" (Hong Kong Security Law) took place, increasing the likelihood that it will be unanimously passed after a final vote at the closing ceremony on the 30th. With the dominant expectation that the Hong Kong Security Law will be fully enforced starting next month, the Hong Kong pro-democracy organizations' sovereignty return commemorative rally scheduled for July 1 has been banned in Hong Kong.

According to China's state-run Xinhua News Agency on the 29th, the NPC Standing Committee held the 20th Standing Committee meeting in Beijing the previous day and conducted a review related to the draft of the Hong Kong Security Law. 161 committee members attended, meeting the quorum for the vote. Participants explained that on the first day of the Standing Committee meeting, there was a group discussion on the draft of the Hong Kong Security Law, and most attendees expressed a unanimous opinion without significant objections.

China's state-run Global Times stated, "China will soon enter the final voting stage for the Hong Kong Security Law," mentioning the possibility of a final vote on the 30th when the Standing Committee meeting concludes. The Global Times explained, "Although laws typically undergo three readings, considering the law's impact and urgency, it can be enacted after only one or two readings," and reported that the majority of NPC members support promptly completing the legislation.

Hong Kong media such as Ming Pao also reported that the final vote on the Hong Kong Security Law will take place on the 30th, with most expected to vote in favor. Ip Kwok-him, an NPC representative from Hong Kong, explained, "The bill will be carefully handled for voting during this session. The likelihood of passage is very high, over 99.9%." Once the NPC passes the Hong Kong Security Law, the Hong Kong government will immediately insert this law into the Basic Law Annex, which is Hong Kong's de facto constitution, and the law can be fully enforced starting July 1, the 23rd anniversary of Hong Kong's sovereignty return.

Although the possibility of the Hong Kong Security Law being enacted immediately after the final vote has increased, the momentum of opposition protests within Hong Kong is waning.

The pro-democracy organizations' planned sovereignty return commemorative rally on July 1 was disapproved by the Hong Kong government authorities. The Civil Human Rights Front had planned to hold a rally at Victoria Park at 3 p.m. on July 1, followed by a march to the Hong Kong government headquarters to protest against the Hong Kong Security Law. Last year on July 1, 550,000 Hong Kong citizens held a sovereignty return commemorative rally and protested against the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" (extradition bill).

The basis for the Hong Kong police's decision to ban the July 1 rally is the social distancing policy in response to COVID-19, which prohibits gatherings or meetings of more than 50 people. This is the first time since the 1997 sovereignty return that the annual sovereignty return commemorative rally has been banned.

There are observations that the maximum penalty under the Hong Kong Security Law could be life imprisonment, and with the possibility of retroactive application being raised, the likelihood of protesters actively participating in the banned July 1 rally has also decreased.

The Macau National Security Law, which has been in effect since 2009, stipulates a maximum sentence of 30 years, and Chinese criminal law also allows for life imprisonment for those who lead acts of subversion or division of the state. Tan Yaozhong, a member of the NPC Standing Committee, conveyed that after gathering opinions from various sectors regarding the Hong Kong Security Law, there were many calls for "retroactive application" and "strict punishment." Professor Tian Peilong of Beihang University in China also raised the possibility of retroactive application, stating, "The Hong Kong Security Law can be applied to protest participants."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.