Kim Jong-un Finally Appears... Sudden Suspension of Military Action Plan Against South Korea (Comprehensive)

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Kim Yo-jong as 'Bad Cop', Kim Jong-un as 'Good Cop'
"No Benefit to North Korea in Armed Conflict
Resumption of ROK-US Joint Exercises Seen as More Troublesome"

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, presided over a preliminary meeting of the 7th Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party on the 23rd and decided to put on hold the military action plans against South Korea, according to the North Korean state media outlet Korean Central News Agency on the 24th. This is interpreted as an attempt to moderate the escalating tensions in inter-Korean relations, which have been on the brink of a crisis.

The agency reported that the Central Military Commission assessed the recent situation and decided at the 7th session of the 7th Central Military Commission to suspend the military action plans against the South that had been previously proposed by the General Staff Department.

Previously, North Korea had announced a shift of its inter-Korean affairs to hostile affairs and had warned of military actions against the South.

Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party who has recently led the offensive against South Korea, hinted at the demolition of the Kaesong Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office in a statement on the 13th and said, "The authority to carry out the next hostile action will be handed over to our military's General Staff Department."

Subsequently, on the 17th, the General Staff Department of the Korean People's Army announced in a spokesperson's statement the deployment of military units to the Mount Kumgang tourism area and the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the redeployment of guard posts (GPs) in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) from which troops had withdrawn, the resumption of military exercises in the West Sea, and military support for leaflet (pamphlet) distribution against South Korea.

The General Staff Department also stated, "These military action plans will be further detailed and approved by the Party Central Military Commission at an early date."

There was widespread speculation that the Central Military Commission would convene soon and that the announced military measures would be implemented, but Chairman Kim's sudden decision to suspend them has drawn attention to the background and intent behind this move.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, explained, "The judgment is that military action leading to armed conflict would not be beneficial even for themselves," adding, "If the South Korea-U.S. military exercises resume, they will also become exhausted." He also analyzed that "by showing that not all military matters may be approved, it also serves to reinforce the authority of the Party Central Military Commission."

Professor Yang said, "(North Korea's recent announcement) is a suspension of the military action plans, not a complete cancellation," and advised, "The government needs to continuously monitor changes in the situation."

There are also analyses that North Korea's sudden change in attitude recalls the events of 2017.

Jenny Town, a researcher at the U.S. Stimson Center and editor of 38 North, tweeted on the 24th (local time), "In 2017, the North Korean military reported plans to strike the U.S. territory of Guam, but Chairman Kim did not approve them."

On August 9, 2017, North Korea, led by Kim Rak-gyom, commander of the Strategic Forces, finalized a plan to encircle Guam with mid-range ballistic missiles 'Hwasong-12' and reported it to Chairman Kim, raising tensions to the highest level with the threat of striking U.S. territory.

However, five days later, Chairman Kim intervened and halted the plan. During an inspection of the Strategic Forces on the 14th, he expressed satisfaction with the report on the Guam encirclement plan but said, "We will observe the behavior of the United States a little longer," ultimately not approving the Guam strike plan.

The meeting also reviewed major military policy proposals and discussed several documents reflecting national measures to strengthen deterrence against war.

The agency reported that Ri Pyong-chol, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and some members of the Central Military Commission participated in the meeting. This is the first time North Korea has held a preliminary meeting of the Party Central Military Commission since Kim Jong-un came to power.

President Moon Jae-in (center), U.S. President Donald Trump (right), and Chairman Kim Jong-un talking at the inter-Korean-U.S. Panmunjom meeting in June last year

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.