[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Troubling NLL... North Korea's First Provocation Location Is

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] As North Korea has expressed its intention to effectively nullify the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement, the possibility of accidental armed clashes on all fronts has increased, including the unsealing of coastal artillery near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea.

The announcement by the spokesperson of the General Staff of the North Korean People's Army on the 17th essentially means the termination of the inter-Korean military agreement, which has served as a "safety valve" on the Korean Peninsula, after one year and nine months. Among the areas where North Korea mentioned resuming military exercises, the area near the NLL is the most concerning. This is because the coastal artillery and long-range artillery deployed in this area are the direct background for North Korea's reference to "turning Seoul into a sea of fire."

According to the inter-Korean military agreement, measures such as covering the coastal artillery gun ports and the gun barrels on naval vessels, as well as closing the gun ports, were implemented along the NLL areas of the East and West Seas. Artillery firing and maneuver training were also prohibited. This established a military buffer zone between the two Koreas to prevent armed clashes. However, concerns are growing that North Korea is likely to reopen coastal artillery and redeploy artillery units within the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which will inevitably raise military tensions.

North Korea has deployed about 900 coastal artillery pieces along the coasts of Ongjin Peninsula and Gangryeong Peninsula in Hwanghae Province, as well as on Kirin Island, Wolnae Island, and Daesuyap Island in the West Sea. More than 70% of these coastal artillery pieces can threaten areas south of the NLL. The representative coastal artillery deployed by North Korea includes 130mm guns with a range of 27 km and 76.2mm guns with a range of 12 km. In some areas, 152mm ground howitzers (flat trajectory howitzers) with a range of 27 km have been deployed. Numerous Samlet and Silkworm anti-ship missiles with ranges of 83 to 95 km have also been installed along the northern coast of the NLL. Since the establishment of the Kim Jong-un regime, North Korea has significantly strengthened its forces centered on uninhabited islands adjacent to the northwestern islands. At Galdo, located 4.5 km northwest of Yeonpyeong Island, 122mm multiple rocket launchers have been deployed, and at Arido, 12 km northeast of Yeonpyeong Island, a 20-meter-high steel tower with high-performance video surveillance radar equipment has been installed, with about 20 troops stationed there.

If North Korea's artillery units in the West Sea conduct firing exercises, the coastal artillery at Deungsan Cape and Jangsan Cape bases are expected to be the first to appear. Deungsan Cape base, from which North Korean patrol boats that triggered the first and second Yeonpyeong naval battles in 1999 and 2002 departed, along with Jangsan Cape base, are considered major bases of the North Korean navy in the West Sea. Notably, after the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island attack, North Korea is known to have deployed SA-2 surface-to-air missiles and even installed anti-ship missile launchers at this location. The SA-2 surface-to-air missile, developed by the former Soviet Union, has a range of approximately 13 to 30 km.

The East Sea NLL area (from Sokcho in the East Sea to Tongcheon in North Korea) is also not safe. The military agreement designated certain areas in the East Sea as buffer zones (80 km in the East Sea, 135 km in the West Sea), prohibiting artillery firing and maneuver training. However, if North Korea militarizes the Mount Kumgang tourism area, the Yugogeup (70-ton) submarine base and multiple rocket launcher units near Jangjeon Port in Mount Kumgang could be reactivated. The submarine base was constructed by carving out a passage through coastal cliffs and installing large concrete doors. Until 2003, submarines intermittently used this base, but it was closed as the Mount Kumgang tourism special zone expanded. Several 240mm multiple rocket launcher units are still stationed on the mid-slopes surrounding Jangjeon Port. Multiple rocket launcher vehicles equipped with 12 launch tubes have also been deployed.

Military unit deployment in the Kaesong Industrial Complex area is also possible. Before the start of construction of the Kaesong Industrial Complex in December 2003, North Korea had deployed the 6th Division, 64th Division, and 62nd Artillery Brigade of the 2nd Corps in the Kaesong and Panmun-eup Bongdong-ri areas. The 6th Division possessed the North Korean army's main battle tank, the 'Chonma-ho,' capable of speeds up to 54 km/h, and a battalion of armored vehicles capable of speeds up to 60 km/h. The 62nd Artillery Brigade was armed with 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers aimed at the Seoul metropolitan area. These long-range artillery pieces, with ranges of 54 to 65 km, pose a threat to the metropolitan area. If North Korean troops are redeployed in Kaesong, these long-range artillery pieces will become the most threatening weapons directly targeting the metropolitan area.

According to the General Staff spokesperson's announcement, the North Korean army is expected to soon restore the dismantled Guard Posts (GPs) and redeploy troops and weapons. North Korea had previously deployed mortars, 14.5mm heavy machine guns, and recoilless rifles at the GPs. The heavy weapons installed at the GPs were mutually aimed, so even a slight accidental trigger could result in gunfire, posing a high risk of escalating into a localized conflict at any time.

Provocations disguised as field training are also a concern. According to the military agreement, both Koreas have completely suspended artillery firing exercises and field maneuver training at the regimental level or higher within 5 km of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). The 5 km zone from the MDL has been a dangerous area, with a total of 96 mutual artillery exchanges since the armistice agreement. If North Korea resumes training in this zone, the South Korean military will have no choice but to conduct counter-training, inevitably reverting to the "Cold War" state before the military agreement was signed.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.