West Sea and Han River Estuary on High Alert... North Korea's Kim Yo-jong Warns "Military Given Authority to Act," Threatens Armed Provocation

Possibility of Anti-Aircraft Gun Fire During North Korea Leaflet Drops
Monitoring West Sea Northern Limit Line (NLL) and Han River Estuary
Kim Jong-un Declares 'Strengthening Nuclear Deterrence'... Potential Strategic Weapon Provocations

North Korea's multiple rocket launcher firing training

Kim Yo-jong, the younger sister of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un and the second-in-command in North Korea, has effectively signaled impending military action against South Korea. Amid assessments that provocations against the South are likely in the West Sea and the Han River estuary, there is also speculation that North Korea may provoke nuclear capabilities against the United States.

In a statement on the 14th, Kim Yo-jong said, "The authority to carry out the next anti-South action will be handed over to our military’s General Staff," adding, "I believe our military will also decide and execute something to somewhat quell the people's anger." The General Staff of the Korean People's Army exercises command over all military operations, equivalent to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Immediate concerns focus on firepower provocations near the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), such as North Korea’s anti-aircraft gun targeting in response to South Korean leaflet drops. North Korea’s recent offensive against the South began with criticism of defector groups distributing leaflets. The leaflet issue was the first problem Kim Yo-jong raised in her denunciations against the South.

The defector group Free Joseon Movement has announced plans to distribute one million leaflets on the 25th. This could trigger anti-aircraft gunfire or other attacks. In fact, North Korea fired anti-aircraft shells toward leaflets in October 2014, with some shells landing near the civilian control line in Yeoncheon, Gyeonggi Province.

Regardless of the leaflet issue, North Korea may also carry out military provocations near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea or the Han River estuary. Kim Yo-jong has already hinted at "actions to quell the people's anger" in her statement.

A photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on August 25 last year, showing the successful test launch of a "newly researched and developed super-large multiple rocket launcher" under the guidance of Chairman Kim Jong Un (center).

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Far East Asia Research Institute at Gyeongnam National University observed, "(Through her statement) Kim Yo-jong has essentially declared the start of action," adding, "Since she mentioned the annulment of the inter-Korean military agreement signed on September 19, 2018, this could be related."

He explained, "While the land and air domains are clearly distinguished under the armistice agreement, the maritime domain was not agreed upon," adding, "If North Korea is causing trouble without directly violating the armistice, considering that there is no agreement on this and that North Korea has never recognized the NLL, and taking into account the crab fishing season, they might be planning something in the buffer zone set in the West Sea." He also warned, "With the upcoming monsoon season, the Han River and Imjin River estuary areas cannot be considered safe either."

In the past, North Korea has repeatedly claimed that South Korean fishing boats illegally crossed their arbitrarily set "guard line" south of the NLL during the crab fishing season.

Moreover, there are speculations that provocations involving "nuclear capabilities" might occur. North Korea has recently issued daily messages pressuring the United States alongside its criticisms of South Korea.

On the 12th, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Son-gwon stated in a statement, "Our strategic goal is to build strength to manage the long-term military threat from the United States."

The following day, Kwon Jong-gun, director of the U.S. affairs department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, "It is better to stop the nonsense about denuclearization," adding, "Let me make it clear that we will continue to build our strength to suppress the ongoing threats from the United States, and these efforts are continuously ongoing even at this moment." He warned, "We have changed a lot compared to two years ago, are still changing, and will continue to change fiercely."

The Choson Sinbo, the official newspaper of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan representing North Korea’s position, claimed on the 14th that the conclusion reached on the second anniversary of the Singapore North Korea-U.S. summit was the strengthening of "nuclear war deterrence" in response to U.S. military threats.

Choson Sinbo emphasized, "The deadline for North Korea-U.S. dialogue ended at the end of last year," stating it is already too late to reverse the North Korea-U.S. confrontation phase.

Choson Sinbo recalled that at the Workers' Party plenary meeting held at the end of last year, Chairman Kim Jong-un warned that "If the United States continues its hostile policy toward North Korea, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will never happen," and announced "shocking actual actions" and "new strategic weapons."

On June 30th last year, the North Korean and U.S. leaders shook hands across the Military Demarcation Line (MDL).

Meanwhile, on the early morning of the 14th, the government held a National Security Council (NSC) meeting chaired by National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong to review the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Kang Min-seok, spokesperson for the Blue House, stated on the 14th, "An emergency video conference of the NSC Standing Committee was held under the chairmanship of the National Security Office Director to review the current situation on the Korean Peninsula and discuss countermeasures." Attendees included the National Security Office Director, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Unification, Minister of National Defense, Director of the National Intelligence Service, first and second deputy directors of the National Security Office, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The Ministry of National Defense announced on the 14th, "Our military maintains a firm military readiness posture to prepare for all situations," adding, "We are taking the current situation seriously and closely monitoring North Korean military movements."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.