[The Editors' Verdict] 'Leaflets' Are Just an Excuse... North Korea Needed an 'External Enemy'

[Asia Economy Jeong Wanju, Deputy Director and Chief of Political Department] After the breakdown of the Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit, the tense inter-Korean relations have returned to square one. North Korea cited the distribution of anti-North Korea leaflets (ppira) as a pretext, but most North Korea experts do not agree with this. Although North Korea has harbored dissatisfaction toward the leaflets, it is diagnosed that this is not a decisive reason to cause the current situation.

Then, what did North Korea intend? An accurate diagnosis is necessary. A correct diagnosis enables proper measures. The issue of leaflet distribution was also judged inappropriate during the Park Geun-hye administration considering the safety of residents in adjacent areas. If we focus only on this issue, fundamental measures cannot be derived.

'Owol Dongju (吳越同舟)' means that even hostile parties join hands in difficult situations. Until the North Korea-U.S. Singapore summit was held, the South and North had no choice but to share the intention to improve relations with the U.S., which leads the sanctions against North Korea. The two leaders of South and North Korea boarded the same boat, holding separate summits.

The boat seemed to be sailing smoothly but eventually hit a reef. This was due to the breakdown of the Hanoi summit caused by the domestic situation in the U.S. North Korea, which aimed for sanctions relief and regime guarantees in exchange for the Yongbyon nuclear facility, could not hide its disappointment.

The responsibility shifted to the United Front Department. Meanwhile, Kim Yo-jong, who continues the Baekdu bloodline, emerged as the de facto second-in-command. Under Kim Yo-jong’s orders, the final chapter of severing inter-Korean relations was written. South Korea was defined as a hostile entity.

North Korea targeted the South Korean government, which lacks the initiative for sanctions relief or regime guarantees, rather than the U.S., which needs dialogue. Around the time of the closure of inter-Korean communication lines, North Korea held large-scale mass rallies one after another and condemned the South Korean government. North Korea needed to find an 'external enemy' as a strategy to overcome the crisis, and that target ended up being the South Korean government.

The reason North Korea turned South Korea into the external enemy instead of the U.S. is clear. Due to the impact of sanctions, North Korea’s livelihood economy is nearly collapsing, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although it called for 'self-reliance' in preparation for a long-term struggle, over time, that 'remedy' likely reached its limit.

The solution to overcoming crises, verified throughout history, is to create an 'external enemy.' Niccol? Machiavelli, author of 'The Prince,' argued that a means to make a ruler great is to create enemies. A wise ruler can intentionally foster hostility to overcome crises and maintain power. It is a situation where the ruler holds a trump card that promotes group unity and is advantageous for maintaining power.

Based on this, there is practically little the South Korean government can do. North Korea will not immediately respond to any proposals from the South for the time being. This means a mid- to long-term cooling-off period is needed rather than seeking premature solutions.

It is inappropriate to show emotional reactions to North Korea’s actions or ongoing criticisms. Quietly conducting behind-the-scenes work in preparation for a possible rapid shift back to dialogue is sufficient. If various measures are hastily issued as if being chased, it could instead fall into the intention of 'internal division' (namnam bunyeol).

Unlike Kim Yo-jong, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un is stepping back from the measures that have shattered inter-Korean relations. This is interpreted as an intention to leave room for a dramatic turn of events as a last bastion. The appearance of temporarily excluding the U.S. from the target of external enemies is also seen as part of this.

Therefore, the government and political circles need to maintain composure for the time being, having a cooling-off period until an opportunity or timing for a change in atmosphere is found. In short, they should not show signs of being shaken by North Korea’s brinkmanship tactics.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.