Taking a Breather in China-India Conflict, Is Reconciliation Possible?

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Sunmi Park] China and India, which are in a conflict phase due to border disputes, have partially withdrawn troops from the disputed areas ahead of military talks. Although this move is largely seen as a step back for dialogue, it remains uncertain whether the conflict will be easily resolved, as the border dispute is intertwined with the US-China hegemonic competition.

According to major Indian media on the 10th, the Chinese military has withdrawn troops from three locations in the Ladakh region bordering India. There has been no change in the military deployment near Pangong Lake in Ladakh, where the standoff was most severe, but troop withdrawal movements have been detected in the other three locations. India is also showing signs of tension reduction by scaling down its forces in the areas from which the Chinese troops have withdrawn.

The signs of de-escalation in the military standoff between China and India in the Ladakh region are attributed to the upcoming bilateral military talks, expected to take place as early as today or by tomorrow at the latest. China and India recently agreed through diplomatic and military channels to resolve the border issues in the Ladakh region through dialogue. After a brawl between soldiers of the two countries in the area last month, China deployed 5,000 troops and armored vehicles there, and India responded by forward-deploying three infantry divisions, escalating the conflict.

Although both militaries decided to take a step back in the disputed area ahead of the military talks, the Ladakh region is not only a border dispute issue between the two countries but also linked to the US-China hegemonic rivalry, making it uncertain how long the tension reduction phase will last.

In fact, while China made a gesture of partial troop withdrawal in Ladakh, it replaced Major General Xu Qiling, who is regarded as a "rising young star" in China, as the commander responsible for the China-India border area. Deploying him, who is five years younger than his predecessor, to the sensitive border dispute area during a period of heightened tension with India is analyzed as a move to pressure India, considering that relations may not improve easily in the near future.

Recently, China has also shown efforts to emphasize military readiness against India by mobilizing state-run media. On the 6th, during the high-level military talks between the two countries over the border issue, China Central Television (CCTV) released footage of Chinese military maneuvers, highlighting scenes where the Chinese Air Force rapidly moved from Hubei Province to the northwestern plateau region and assumed combat readiness, implying that the Chinese military could be fully mobilized in case of military confrontation with India. On the 1st of this month, the Chinese military also released CCTV footage of night infiltration training in a plateau environment similar to the border dispute area with India, further pressuring India.

The deterioration of relations to the point of brawls in the Ladakh region bordering China and India is also analyzed to be influenced by India’s recent infrastructure expansion and barrier construction in Ladakh to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (一帶一路). The standoff intensified as India undertook large-scale road and runway construction in the Himalayan border area to counter China’s Belt and Road push. Since India is a key region in the US Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s Belt and Road, India’s infrastructure investment in the border area can also be interpreted as influenced by US pressure.

Recently, the US has been confronting China on multiple fronts, including trade, COVID-19, and the Hong Kong Security Law, while pressuring countries that can check China. The day before, a US military Boeing C-40A transport aircraft flew over Taiwan’s airspace. Several Chinese Su-30 fighter jets also entered southwestern Taiwan airspace on the same day, prompting the Taiwanese military to issue warning broadcasts to the Chinese military and order the fighters to withdraw, escalating tensions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.