[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] North Cuts Communication Line... Will It Lead to NLL Provocation?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] Concerns are growing over the possibility that North Korea may scrap the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement and launch military provocations against South Korea.

On the 9th, North Korea experts predicted that if the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement is terminated following the directive from Kim Yo-jong, the First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of North Korea, military provocations will continue using the "new strategic weapons" mentioned by North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un at the end of last December. Low-intensity provocations near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea are also expected.

Experts foresee that the new strategic weapons mentioned by Chairman Kim are likely to be a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) equipped new liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) fired from a new 3,000-ton class strategic submarine. The final report by the UN Security Council's Panel of Experts on North Korea sanctions, released in April, revealed that North Korea had constructed a large-scale submarine training center and new submarine repair shelters (camouflage facilities) at the Sinpo Shipyard and nearby areas by the end of last year. Furthermore, on the 2nd, former US Forces Korea Commander Walter Sharp forecasted at an online seminar hosted by the Korean Defense Veterans Association (KDVA) that "we will soon see submarines equipped with ballistic missile launch capabilities."

The SLBM to be mounted on the 3,000-ton class submarine is the "Pukguksong-3." North Korea claimed a successful launch of the Pukguksong-3, which was detected at a maximum altitude of about 910 km and a flight distance of approximately 450 km. There is also a high possibility that North Korea will first unveil the 3,000-ton class submarine equipped with an SLBM launch system. Simply revealing a new submarine capable of carrying three SLBMs would be sufficient military pressure on the United States and South Korea. Military authorities are focusing their intelligence efforts on determining the launch timing of the 3,000-ton class submarine.

Since the beginning of this month, activities of North Korean fishing boats and patrol boats have significantly increased in the West Sea near the NLL, coinciding with the blue crab fishing season. As the number of North Korean fishing boats rises, patrol boat activities have also become more active, maintaining a constant risk of clashes between South and North Korean naval vessels. Both the First and Second Battle of Yeonpyeong occurred in June, in 1999 and 2002 respectively. North Korea has been continuously reinforcing its forces near the NLL recently.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Far East Institute at Gyeongnam National University stated, "The statement made on the 5th by the spokesperson of the United Front Department (UFD) of the Workers' Party of Korea, which oversees inter-Korean policies, that 'if the South causes trouble in the border area, there will be nothing to say,' appears to be a warning of military provocations," adding, "Military provocations near the NLL, where no agreement has been reached between the South and North, are expected during the blue crab fishing season in June."

Additionally, there are speculations that North Korea could conduct military provocations by redeploying coastal artillery in the maritime buffer zone and conducting firing drills. North Korea had already fired coastal artillery from Changrindo Island in the West Sea buffer zone in November last year. This was a clear violation of the military agreement, but Chairman Kim personally observed the event. Furthermore, there is a possibility that North Korea may retract the withdrawal of guard posts (GPs). This means North Korea could rebuild dismantled GPs or reinforce existing GPs with personnel. GPs are locations with a significant risk of accidental military clashes, as seen in the shooting incident on the 3rd of last month.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.