South Korea's Rising Value Amid US-China Conflict, Precarious Diplomatic Tightrope Walk

President Moon Accepts G7 Invitation: Will It Mark a Turning Point in Korean Diplomacy? Trump’s Move to Contain China Raises Concerns for Korea

[Asia Economy Reporters Ryu Jeong-min and Lim Cheol-young] President Moon Jae-in's acceptance of the invitation to the 'Group of Seven (G7)' marks a turning point in South Korea's diplomatic history.

It is significant not only because South Korea was invited to a meeting of major powers but also because it represents a proactive choice amid the turbulent changes in the global order, rather than a precarious balancing act. This could symbolize President Moon's declared ambition of "leaping forward as a leading nation in the world," but there is also a possibility that South Korea may become a victim of the tug-of-war between the two global superpowers, the United States and China.

The fact that U.S. President Donald Trump called President Moon on the 1st to inquire about his willingness to participate in the G7 meeting and discuss changes in the global order reflects South Korea's elevated status. A Blue House official explained, "We believe this is due to the strategic rise in our government's position."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

South Korea, recognized as a model country in responding to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), has seen its international standing soar. During the call, President Moon stated, "I will gladly accept President Trump's invitation and will do everything South Korea can in both quarantine and economic aspects."

Participation in the G7 meeting can also be seen as a diplomatic 'bold move' in the process of reshaping the international order in the post-COVID era. The Blue House's shift from a 'cautious mode' to 'active participation' reflects a strategic consideration of the United States' status in the international community and President Trump's request.

President Trump is considering expanding the G7 to a major 11-country (G11) or 12-country (G12) framework, including South Korea, Australia, India, Russia, and even Brazil. Regarding Brazil's inclusion, President Moon supported Trump's plan, saying, "Considering population, economic size, and regional representation, it is appropriate to include Brazil."

If South Korea joins the expanded new system beyond the G7, it will secure an international status far beyond participation in the Group of Twenty (G20) or the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In Asia, a solid three-power system will be established with China, Japan, and South Korea.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The problem is that given the complex and delicate dynamics of the international community, it is difficult to be overly optimistic. This is because President Trump's proposal is intertwined with a political strategy aimed at 'containing China.' South Korea's status has risen amid the U.S.-China conflict, but diplomatic burdens have also increased.

South Korea accepted the G7 expansion reform, emphasizing 'K-quarantine' to pursue economic benefits. However, the issue of U.S. military alliance pressure is entirely different. Our government faces a situation where it must conduct balanced diplomacy with a 'two-track' strategy that separates economic and security issues between the U.S. and China.

Professor Jeong Dae-jin of Ajou University said, "While there are concerns about being forced to choose sides as U.S.-China conflicts intensify, it is also an opportunity to demonstrate our role and status. Ultimately, we cannot avoid traditional diplomatic and security issues, but at least in this G7+α, we should show our role in practical international cooperation issues and secure a unique status in the new post-COVID international order."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If the U.S.'s 'China containment strategy' becomes overt, including military matters, the fallout could affect South Korea. The U.S. may strongly pressure South Korea to participate in its Indo-Pacific strategy. Regarding this, the general analysis is that South Korea is likely to maintain its existing 'strategic ambiguity.'

Professor Hwang Jae-ho of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies' Department of International Studies said, "It is necessary to actively convey the K-model in quarantine and economic fields on major stages such as the G7," adding, "We should minimize remarks related to China and emphasize that we are actively contributing to the international community amid the COVID-19 situation."

South Korea's precarious balancing act faces many hurdles to a positive and smooth landing. First, the perceptions of existing major powers regarding changes in the G7 system are a variable. The fact that the United Kingdom openly opposed Russia's participation is also a noteworthy point.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.