The 'Hwang Kyo-ahn 1%' That Shocked the Presidential Race... Is the 'Political Messiah' Expectation an Illusion?

Looking Back at Public Opinion Polls 1 Year and 10 Months Before the Last Presidential Election... The Winner Was One of the Established Figures the People Focused On

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] It is a shocking result that Hwang Kyo-ahn, former leader of the United Future Party who once held an unshakable first place among conservative presidential candidates, received a '1% approval rating.' While the aftermath of the general election defeat can be considered significant, such a rapid decline in political standing is not commonly seen.

According to a Gallup Korea survey conducted nationwide from May 12 to 14 among 1,000 adults aged 18 and over, the results for "who would be a good political leader to lead our country in the future" showed former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon (28%), Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung (11%), People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (3%), and former Liberty Korea Party leader Hong Joon-pyo (2%) in that order.

Former leader Hwang received 1% support along with Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, United Future Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl. A 1% approval rating is an unfamiliar figure considering Hwang's political standing before the general election. For detailed information on the Gallup Korea poll, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the United Future Party, is leaving the comprehensive vote counting situation room set up at the National Assembly on the 15th after announcing his intention to resign from the party leadership, taking responsibility for the election results. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

For the main opposition party, the United Future Party, this is an embarrassing result. Former Liberty Korea Party leader Hong Joon-pyo is in a slightly better position than Hwang but still only has 2%. In this state, it is difficult to look forward to the next presidential election, which is 1 year and 10 months away.

An old belief or misconception in Korean politics is that a new figure will emerge in the political arena and become the winner of the presidential election. However, political experts expect that the winner will come from among the 'existing figures' already known to the public. The idea that someone will appear like Cinderella, lead the presidential race, and become the final winner is a difficult assumption to expect in real politics.

Then, what were the approval ratings for presidential candidates in July 2015, 1 year and 10 months before the May 2017 presidential election? At that time, the next presidential election was expected to be in December 2017. The impeachment of the president and the early election (May 2017) were not anticipated.

Lee Nak-yeon, Co-Chairman of the Democratic Party's Joint Election Countermeasures Committee, is leaving the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeouido, Seoul, on the afternoon of the 15th after watching the broadcast exit poll announcement at the comprehensive vote counting situation room set up there, heading to the Jongno-gu election office. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

According to a Gallup Korea survey conducted from July 14 to 16, 2015, among 1,003 adults nationwide, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon (16%), Saenuri Party leader Kim Moo-sung (15%), New Politics Alliance for Democracy leader Moon Jae-in (12%), and lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo (8%) ranked at the top.

Former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (6%), Saenuri Party Conservative Innovation Committee Chairman Kim Moon-soo (4%), former Saenuri Party floor leader Yoo Seung-min (4%), former lawmaker Chung Mong-joon (4%), and Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung (2%) followed. The strong performance of 'politician Kim Moo-sung,' the ruling party leader at the time, is notable.

At that time, the Saenuri Party's approval rating was about twice that of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy. The high presidential approval rating of the Saenuri Party leader is related to this political background. Although the Saenuri Party's party approval rating was significantly higher, presidential approval ratings were stronger for current Democratic Party-affiliated politicians such as Mayor Park Won-soon and then-leader Moon Jae-in, which is worth noting.

The Gallup Korea poll at that time selected four preferred political leaders each from the ruling and opposition parties through open-ended responses, then added former Saenuri Party floor leader Yoo Seung-min, making a total of nine candidates. Former Liberty Korea Party leader Hong Joon-pyo, who ran as the party's candidate in the May 2017 presidential election, was not included in the survey.

Hong Joon-pyo, who was not included in the survey, was selected as the presidential candidate and came in second in the May 2017 election. However, his vote share was only 24.03%, making it difficult to expect a win. This means that Hong Joon-pyo, who was not in the July 2015 poll, did not become a political messiah in the election.

Joo Ho-young, floor leader of the United Future Party, and Won Yoo-chul, leader of the Mirae Korea Party, hold a press conference related to the merger at the National Assembly on the 14th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

While political parties do not need to be overly swayed by poll numbers, ignoring or dismissing public sentiment is also dangerous. The results of Gallup Korea's second week of May poll are noteworthy when predicting the next presidential election landscape.

If the United Future Party fails to control the one-sided dominance of the Democratic Party's presidential candidates, the presidential election 1 year and 10 months from now will inevitably be a tough battle.

Political analyst Eom Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "Efforts are needed to fundamentally change the modern party image of the United Future Party," adding, "Recent moves by the party, such as apology messages related to the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement, are meaningful, but it is difficult to expect changes in public sentiment from just one or two actions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.