US Congressional Research Service: "Kim Yo-jong Most Likely Successor if Kim Jong-un Incapacitated"

▲Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of Korea [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] The U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) announced that regarding rumors about North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un's health issues, his younger sister Kim Yo-jong, the first vice chairwoman of the Workers' Party, is the most likely successor in the event of Kim's incapacitation.

In a recently published report on North Korea-U.S. relations, the CRS stated, "The 36-year-old Kim is understood to have suffered from various health problems for several years," adding, "Although Kim is known to have three children under the age of ten, there is no clear successor."

The CRS further explained, "It is unclear who would succeed him if Kim were to die or be unable to carry out normal activities due to illness," and noted, "Vice Chairwoman Kim is the most likely candidate, and she has played a prominent role in diplomatic summits."

The CRS said that if a power struggle emerges, it could have significant implications for U.S. interests, including questions about nuclear weapons control, the potential for humanitarian crises, and possible confrontations with China, all of which could fundamentally alter the security structure of the region.

Additionally, while experts remain skeptical of North Korea's claim that there have been no cases of COVID-19, the CRS assessed, "North Korea's fragile healthcare system does not appear to be overwhelmed," attributing this to "the complete border closures and other strict measures implemented since January."

Regarding North Korea, the CRS described it as "one of the most persistent U.S. diplomatic challenges since the post-Cold War era," and stated, "Under Kim's leadership, improvements in nuclear and missile capabilities have evolved into a serious security threat to the United States."

On North Korea's economic situation, the CRS noted that although overall growth appears to have declined due to intensified sanctions since 2016, there are few signs of severe economic distress that could trigger systemic collapse.

Concerning sanctions on North Korea, the CRS observed, "Some countries seem less rigorous in enforcing international sanctions than before the start of North Korea-U.S. reconciliation," and evaluated, "The Donald Trump administration periodically announced designations for North Korean sanctions but refrained from aggressive enforcement, especially in the area of secondary sanctions."

Regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons, the CRS reported, "North Korea claims its nuclear arsenal serves as a deterrent against U.S. attacks," but added, "Some analysts worry that if North Korea believes it has developed a sufficiently robust deterrent, it may become bolder in launching attacks or using nuclear threats to achieve other policy objectives."

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