President Moon's Hometown and Residence: An Interesting Political Barometer After Retirement

Hometown Geoje Sees Ruling Party Candidate's General Election Defeat, Residence in Yangsan Sees Democratic Party Candidate Victory... Can Yangsan Become a Second Gimhae for the Democratic Party?

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] In general elections, there exists an invisible "political premium." This is the so-called presidential hometown premium. A hometown traditionally refers to the place of birth, but in a broader sense, it can mean the place where one spent most of their childhood or the majority of their life. The place where a president was born or will live after retirement typically becomes a favorable electoral base for the ruling party.

Looking at recent general election results, the ruling party candidates have invariably won in the president’s birthplace or where they spent their childhood. This was the case in the 15th general election during President Kim Young-sam’s era, the 16th during President Kim Dae-jung’s, the 17th during President Roh Moo-hyun’s, the 18th and 19th during President Lee Myung-bak’s, and the 20th during President Park Geun-hye’s.

However, in the 21st general election, the ruling party candidate was defeated in the president’s birthplace. Geoje, Gyeongnam, where President Moon Jae-in was born, has traditionally been a challenging area for parties affiliated with the Democratic Party of Korea. This suggests that the premium of being the president’s hometown alone does not guarantee an easy victory.

According to the final vote count by the National Election Commission, in Geoje, the United Future Party candidate Seo Il-jun won with 65,746 votes (50.89%), while the Democratic Party candidate Moon Sang-mo received 49,136 votes (38.03%), resulting in a victory for the United Future Party. Although Gyeongnam, especially Geoje, is a symbolic region that produced a president, ongoing local economic stagnation made it a difficult area for the ruling party.

In the 20th general election, Democratic Party candidate Byeon Gwang-yong garnered 43.47% of the vote, closely contesting with Saenuri Party candidate Kim Han-pyo, who received 44.19%. Therefore, the 21st general election results are inevitably disappointing for the Democratic Party.

However, the Democratic Party narrowly won in Yangsan, Gyeongnam, where President Moon’s residence is located. Democratic candidate Kim Doo-kwan, a former governor of Gyeongnam, was elected with 48.94% of the vote, defeating United Future Party candidate Na Dong-yeon, who received 47.26%.

Kim Du-gwan, the Democratic Party candidate running in Yangsan-si (Eul), Gyeongnam, is greeting citizens in the Deokgye-ro area of Yangsan, Gyeongnam, on the 3rd. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju, Yangsan, Gyeongnam doso7@

The United Future Party prepared a "tailored nomination" targeting Kim Doo-kwan to secure victory in this area where President Moon’s residence is located. Na Dong-yeon, a former mayor of Yangsan, is a politician with a strong local base.

Assuming President Moon returns to his residence after his retirement in May 2022, this victory holds significant meaning for the Democratic Party. Gyeongnam Gimhae-eul, the hometown and residence of former President Roh Moo-hyun, has seen the presidential premium strongly at work, with the Democratic Party winning four out of the last five general elections, including the 17th, 18th, 20th, and 21st.

Yangsan-eul also delivered victories to the Democratic Party in both the 20th and 21st general elections. If the Democratic Party wins again in the 22nd general election scheduled for 2024 after President Moon’s retirement, Yangsan-eul could establish itself as another Democratic stronghold alongside Gimhae.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.