Simulation of 'Social Distancing' Shows "More Effective Than Quarantine"

WP "Higher Participation Rate More Effective... Isolation Practically Impossible"

Amid the government's emphasis on social distancing to prevent the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a large banner for the two-week "Pause for a Moment" campaign to promote social distancing is displayed on the exterior wall of Seoul Library in Jung-gu, Seoul, on the 4th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyun-ui Cho] "Social distancing is more effective than quarantine"

The Washington Post (WP) recently conducted a simulation to curb the rapid increase in confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and presented this analysis. According to the simulation, when quarantine measures were implemented, the number of confirmed cases increased exponentially, peaking twice, whereas social distancing resulted in a gradual curve that eventually disappeared.

Lawrence Gostin, a professor at Georgetown University, explained, "Quarantine is not only an uncommon sanction but also never effective."

On the other hand, social distancing was found to be the most effective measure. When people refrain from moving around and reduce communication with others, the likelihood of virus transmission decreases.

(From left) Distribution of confirmed cases when no measures are taken, during quarantine, with moderate distancing, and with large-scale distancing. Source=The Washington Post

The participation rate in social distancing was also important. When 87.5% of the population practiced social distancing, the number of confirmed cases was significantly lower than when 75% of the population did. The most effective method is extensive social distancing, and moderate social distancing is also more effective than quarantine, WP reported.

Drew Harris, a professor at Thomas Jefferson University, said, "To regulate people's desire to be in public places, the United States is closing public places, and Italy is closing all restaurants," adding, "Reducing opportunities for people to gather helps social distancing."

Regarding quarantine measures such as China's lockdown strategy in epidemic areas, it is explained that it is practically impossible to implement perfectly. Riana Wen, former director of the Baltimore City Health Department, also questioned, "Many people work in the city and live in nearby areas. Is it realistically possible to separate them from their families or control entire roads?"

However, the simulation did not reflect the fact that COVID-19 can lead to death. Although the fatality rate has not yet been accurately determined, WP explained that it is clear that the elderly are the most vulnerable to COVID-19. Professor Harris pointed out, "To make the simulation more realistic, some points (confirmed cases) on the graph should disappear."

Meanwhile, on the 15th (local time), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended not holding events with more than 50 people for the next eight weeks. The CDC stated, "This is to prevent COVID-19 from spreading to new areas and to slow the spread in already infected areas," and added, "Ongoing events should only be held if guidelines for protecting vulnerable groups, hand hygiene, and social distancing can be followed, and should be replaced with online events whenever possible." Bloomberg News evaluated this as "the most extreme measure taken so far regarding COVID-19."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.