Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman Arrests Rival Heir... Speculation on Imminent Succession Emerges

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] It has been reported that Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince, has arrested potential rivals for the throne. Amid rumors about the health issues of the current King Salman bin Abdulaziz, there is speculation that Crown Prince bin Salman’s ascension to the throne may be imminent.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to foreign media including the Washington Post (WP) on the 8th (local time), Crown Prince bin Salman arrested his cousin, former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, and his uncle, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, on the 6th. The charges are treason, which can carry the death penalty. In addition, Prince Nawaf bin Nayef, brother of bin Nayef, and Prince Nayef bin Ahmed, son of Prince Ahmed, were also detained.

The arrests of former Crown Prince bin Nayef and Prince Ahmed took place shortly after they were summoned to enter the royal palace by 7 a.m. on the 6th.

This move by Crown Prince bin Salman is not significantly different from his previous actions to steadily eliminate opposition forces. For example, in 2017, he detained about 500 royal family members and politicians in a hotel, releasing only those who pledged loyalty and paid large bail amounts, and the elimination of critical journalist Jamal Khashoggi was also part of this process.

Some view that despite this consolidation of power, Crown Prince bin Salman is in conflict with the Saudi royal family. Hugh Miles, editor of Arab Digest, analyzed, "Many questions arise regarding the series of developments, but what is clear is that Crown Prince bin Salman is ruling Saudi Arabia without the support of the rest of the Saudi royal family."

The U.S. Washington Post (WP) interpreted the successive arrests of royal family members as a move to strengthen Crown Prince bin Salman’s position within the royal family. Mohammed bin Nayef, who was arrested this time, was originally the first in line for succession but stepped down as Crown Prince and Minister of Interior in June 2017. It was widely speculated that he was pressured to step down to appoint Mohammed bin Salman, who was then Deputy Crown Prince (second in line), as Crown Prince. In Saudi Arabia, it is customary for the next king to succeed the throne through internal consultations within the royal family.

Some analyses suggest that internal opposition may have increased recently due to failure to reach an agreement with Russia during the oil production cut process following the COVID-19 pandemic. Saudi Arabia decided to increase production after failing to reach a cut agreement with Russia, which shocked the oil market. Saudi Arabia, which relies on oil as a major source of revenue, has faced financial pressure due to the recent oil price collapse.

Additionally, there are indications that Crown Prince bin Salman has become impatient amid rumors about King Salman’s health. As the 85-year-old King Salman’s health deteriorates, the Crown Prince is accelerating the succession process.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia released photos of King Salman receiving the Saudi ambassador to Ukraine. Foreign media view the release of these photos as an effort by the Saudi government to dispel rumors about King Salman’s health issues.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.