Ilsan Housing Prices Barely Recovering... Northwest Seoul Metropolitan Area Faces 'Supply Bomb'

Goyang Changneung, Full-Scale Supply of 38,000 Households Expected as Early as 2022

Public Housing District Designation Procedure Completed... Goyang Tanhyeon Also Designated for 3,300 Households
Total of 41,000 Households to Be Built

Ilsan and Paju Unjeong Housing Prices Negatively Affected... Concerns Over Widening North-South Gap in Seoul Metropolitan Area
Expansion of Metropolitan Transportation Network Also Uncertain

[Asia Economy Reporters Yoo In-ho and Lee Chun-hee] The designation process for the public housing district in Goyang Changneung, a 3rd generation new town, has been completed, and housing supply on a scale of 38,000 units is set to begin in earnest as early as 2022. With this district designation, four out of the five 3rd generation new towns in the Seoul metropolitan area, excluding Bucheon Daejang district, have been designated. Along with this, the designation of Goyang Tanhyeon district, with 3,300 housing units, has also been completed, resulting in a total of 41,000 new homes being built in the northwest region of the metropolitan area. However, concerns have been raised that the influx of more than 40,000 units around the relatively stable housing prices of Ilsan New Town will deepen the price gap between the northern and southern parts of the metropolitan area.

◆Large-scale self-sufficient land and creation of a 1 million㎡ urban forest= The Goyang Changneung district, officially designated on the 6th, is one of the five 3rd generation new towns promoted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport as part of the plan to supply 300,000 housing units in the metropolitan area. The districts of Namyangju Wangsuk, Hanam Gyosan, and Incheon Gyeyang have already been designated. With this designation, the designation process for four districts excluding Bucheon Daejang has been completed.

The total area of Changneung district is 8,127,000㎡, slightly more than half the size of the 1st generation new town Ilsan (15,730,000㎡). It is a new town created by utilizing the planned relocation site of the Army's 30th Division and greenbelt areas with low conservation value, with 38,000 housing units planned. Gyeonggi Province, Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH), and Goyang Urban Management Corporation are participating as joint implementers.

The biggest feature of Changneung district is that it includes 1.3 million㎡ of self-sufficient land, accounting for 37% of the total usable area. This is more than twice the size of Pangyo Valley. Near the self-sufficient land, startup housing and other facilities will be placed to realize a job-residence proximity self-sufficient city model, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's policy.

To this end, LH plans to operate a 'Corporate Support Hub' that will serve as a startup incubator and a 'Corporate Growth Support Center' to support companies in their growth stages. The park and green space area will also reach 3.1 million㎡, and in particular, the former site of the 30th Division will be developed into a 1 million㎡ urban forest.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport will also announce the designation of Goyang Tanhyeon district, which is 416,000㎡ and created on a long-term unexecuted park site, along with Changneung district. This area will supply 3,300 housing units, including newlywed hope towns and private sales. Seventy percent of the total site will be developed as a park.

Meanwhile, including Bucheon Daejang district, which has not yet been designated, a total of about 173,000 housing units will be sequentially supplied across the five 3rd generation new towns. The Ministry plans to complete the designation of Bucheon Daejang district (3,430,000㎡, 20,000 units) as early as next month.

▲ Aerial view of Changneung New Town, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi Province (Provided by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport)

◆Concerns over traffic congestion due to the northwest region's housing surge= Goyang Changneung is located within 1 km of Seoul. In terms of area, it is larger than 1st generation new towns such as Pyeongchon (5,110,000㎡), Jungdong (5,450,000㎡), Sanbon (4,200,000㎡), as well as the 2nd generation new town Wirye (6,770,000㎡).

The real estate industry is concerned that the addition of 38,000 housing units in an area adjacent to Seoul will act as a negative factor on the recovering housing prices in Ilsan and Paju Unjeong New Town areas. Local residents have also expressed dissatisfaction, saying, "Why build a new town in an unrelated area while leaving Seoul and the southern metropolitan area, where housing prices are rising, alone?"

It is also uncertain whether the expansion of the metropolitan transportation network will be properly implemented by 2026, when residents begin moving into Changneung district. When announcing the Changneung new town plan in May last year, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport decided to promote the Goyang Line as a key project for the metropolitan transportation network of Changneung new town. This project involves constructing a new approximately 14.5 km section from Seoul Subway Line 6 Saejeol Station to Goyang City Hall. In particular, this line is planned to be directly connected to the Western Line (scheduled to open in 2028), which links Saejeol Station, Sinchon, Yeouido, and Seoul National University, to improve accessibility.

However, the preliminary feasibility study (PFS) poses an immediate obstacle. Since the project is implemented by the public institution LH, it must undergo a 'public institution PFS' for public institution projects exceeding 100 billion KRW in project cost. The estimated cost of the Goyang Line is about 1.5 trillion KRW.

The metropolitan area express train (GTX) is also not included in the plan. There had been expectations that a 'Changneung Station' might be established as the GTX-A line's Daegok to Yeonsinnae section is expected to pass through the center of Changneung new town, but the Ministry has stated that such a plan is not included.

A Ministry official said, "The Goyang Line is planned to operate directly connected with the Western Line, so it is scheduled to be completed by 2028, when the Western Line is completed. Regarding the metropolitan express bus (M-bus), although operating companies may be reluctant due to operating deficits, since more than 2 trillion KRW of investment in transportation-related measures is planned, this will also be included in the metropolitan transportation network improvement measures, and ways to compensate operating costs will be sought."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.