[3rd Report] North Korea Launches Projectile... Is Kim Jong-un Preparing a 'New Path'?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] North Korea fired two projectiles near Wonsan, Gangwon Province. This is the first time North Korea has launched projectiles this year.

On the 2nd, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, "North Korea fired two unidentified projectiles into the East Sea near Wonsan this afternoon," adding, "We are currently analyzing the type and range of the missiles."

It is analyzed that North Korea's first missile provocation this year is intended to draw the attention of the United States. Inter-Korean and North Korea-US summit talks have been stalled since the Hanoi North Korea-US summit on February 27-28 last year ended with 'no deal' (no outcome). Although dialogue has ceased, former US President Donald Trump's attention is focused on his re-election victory. This means that both domestic policies and foreign strategies are being determined based on whether they help secure re-election.

In this context, the North Korea policy is no different. The general outlook is that President Trump is unlikely to take action unless there is a situation where he can achieve results that would help his re-election victory. President Trump has so far provided the core momentum for progress in North Korea-US relations through a 'top-down' approach.

In particular, by postponing the South Korea-US joint military exercises scheduled for the 9th of this month, the justification for North Korea to provoke with missiles has effectively disappeared. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the South Korea-US Combined Forces Command officially announced on the 27th that the joint exercises would be postponed due to the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The postponement of the joint exercises scheduled for the 9th of next month by the military authorities of both countries was recorded as the first case of an infectious disease affecting the 66-year history of South Korea-US joint exercises.

North Korea's internal situation is also unfavorable. Although North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un claims that COVID-19 has not entered the country, it is estimated that about 7,000 people are under effective 'home quarantine' surveillance only in Pyongan Province and Gangwon Province. The Workers' Party organ, Rodong Sinmun, reported on the 1st in an article titled "Intensifying propaganda and quarantine efforts to prevent virus epidemics" that there are a total of about 3,900 'medical surveillance subjects,' including about 2,420 in South Pyongan Province and about 1,500 in Gangwon Province.

Because of this, there is speculation that North Korea's recent projectile launches may be test launches for simple performance improvements.

The British 'Jane's International Defence Review (JIDR)' stated in last month's issue, "North Korea conducted a liquid-fuel engine test on December 7 last year," adding, "On the 12th, South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo also mentioned that this engine is a liquid engine with greater output than before, and that it is for ICBMs." Lee Willett and Nick Hansen evaluated in this article that "Chairman Kim Jong-un intends to show North Korean residents that if the US does not bring a new calculation on denuclearization by the end of 2019, North Korea will declare it is taking a 'new way or path.'"

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.