When Will the Peak of the New Coronavirus Occur? Experts Debate...

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[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Park Sun-mi] Health and epidemiology experts are divided over when the spread of the novel coronavirus infection will reach its 'peak' and subside. Within China, there are opinions that the peak will be reached within February, followed by a clear calming trend. However, some experts advise a cautious approach, saying it is still too early to determine the peak.

According to China Central (CC) TV on the 12th, Zhong Nanshan, a top authority on respiratory diseases and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, diagnosed that the spread of the novel coronavirus could reach its peak within this month and then show a mitigation trend. In an interview the day before, Zhong said, "We can now confirm a trend of gradually decreasing new confirmed cases," adding, "Through mathematical intelligence analysis models, we can expect the number of new confirmed cases to peak and then decline around mid to late this month."

He explained, "However, it is difficult to predict exactly when the peak will be reached," and added, "Since many people will return to their daily routines after the Lunar New Year holiday, it depends on how effectively our prevention and control measures are implemented."

Professor Li Zhou of Xi'an Jiaotong Liverpool University in China also expressed optimism that the novel coronavirus will soon show signs of calming down.

He said, "Next week, there will be a rapid decrease in new confirmed cases," and judged, "The downward trend will continue, and before February 23, we will see the number of new confirmed cases reach 'zero' level. The worst time is over." He added, "However, the situation could change due to various factors, and if the currently released statistics are underreported, the predictions could also change."

However, some voices say it is premature to judge the peak.

John Edmunds, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) in the UK, told the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), "China's statistics are too rough, making it difficult to accurately assess how the situation is progressing based on them." Jonathan Read, professor of biology at Lancaster University in the UK, also advised, "It is very difficult to predict the peak time. Many things are still uncertain, making prediction hard." He added, "Travel restrictions within China have been in place since January 23, but their impact has not yet been properly assessed, so no prediction can be trusted at this point."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.