"Wuhan Pneumonia to Last at Least Several Months... Unable to Predict How the Situation Will Develop"

[Asia Economy Reporter Shinwon Yoon] Experts predict that the novel coronavirus infection (Wuhan pneumonia) outbreak will last for at least several months.

On the 28th, according to AFP and other sources, David Fisman, an infectious disease expert at the University of Toronto in Canada, said, "It will take several weeks, probably several months, for the virus (causing Wuhan pneumonia) spread to be controlled, and no one knows where the situation will go."

Professor Fisman added, "The more we learn about the Wuhan pneumonia virus, the more it appears similar to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Just as SARS was controlled, we hope this virus will be as well, but for a few weeks, the direction is uncertain."

Alessandro Vespignani, a professor at Northeastern University in the United States, also predicted that "this is not an issue that will end next week or next month," expecting the outbreak to continue for several months.

Additionally, Professor Fisman, who recently published an analytical report on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the International Society for Infectious Diseases journal, stated, "The best-case scenario is that the outbreak will disappear as we move through spring into summer."

The majority of experts expect the actual number of infected individuals to be much higher than the number announced by Chinese health authorities.

Unlike China, which has counted confirmed cases at around 4,000, Professor Vespignani estimates that the actual number of infected people exceeds 25,000, adding, "If the spread begins in other major cities outside Wuhan, the number of infected will increase significantly."

Professor Vespignani explained, "The fatality rate tends to appear high at the beginning of the outbreak when vulnerable patients die, then decreases as it spreads to the general population, and rises again once deaths start occurring among them. This also needs to be observed over time."

Regarding the Chinese authorities' assessment that the virus may be infectious during the incubation period, Professor Vespignani said that U.S. health authorities have not seen such evidence, but if true, it would be a 'game changer' that breaks expectations about the situation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.