[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

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[Asia Economy Reporters Naju-seok and Lee Hyun-woo] On the 8th (local time), Iran, immediately after carrying out a retaliatory attack on the US military base stationed in Iraq, issued a statement saying, "Strong retaliation against the United States will continue," urging the US allies not to get involved. This suggested that the front could expand if the US counterattacks Iran's strike or if its allies join the conflict.


At present, the possibility of escalation is fifty-fifty. The US has stated it will respond if Iran retaliates, while Iran has conveyed that it will not provoke new conflicts if there are no further retaliations. Hossein Dehghan, senior military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, said in an interview with CNN on the same day, "The only way to end this war is for the US to receive the same kind of blow it inflicted on Iran and then not pursue a new (conflict) cycle." This is a warning that if the US does not take additional measures against Iran, the situation could be prevented from worsening further.


However, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said at a press conference before Iran's attack, "If Iran makes another bad choice, we can respond as we did last week," adding, "Ultimately, we will make Iran behave like a normal country, eliminate its nuclear weapons capability, and carry out missions to keep Americans safe." This expressed the US's willingness to respond if Iran retaliates. US President Donald Trump also stated that if Iran attacks, he is prepared to retaliate against 52 locations within Iran.


[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

View original image


Escalation depends on whether there are US military casualties. If there are no or few US deaths in this attack, the level of US military response will be more restrained, but if US casualties are confirmed, public support for war in the US could increase. As President Trump has stated, if US forces launch attacks on the Iranian mainland, a full-scale war would become inevitable. However, the US administration reflected its deliberation by canceling President Trump's national address immediately after Iran's attack.


Iran has also indicated that it would attack Israel if the US carries out retaliatory strikes. On the same day, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps stated, "Israel is considered a collaborator in the killing of Commander Soleimani," signaling its intention to retaliate alongside the US. Former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei also declared, "We will pulverize Haifa and Israeli centers in a way that makes Israel disappear from the earth." Iran had previously denied involvement when a Saudi Arabian tanker was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz in June last year, instead pointing to Israel's intelligence agency Mossad and the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) as the culprits.



Israel has distanced itself from the US operation related to the killing of Commander Soleimani. According to Xinhua News Agency, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a special meeting of Israel's government security cabinet held the previous day, "We must ensure that we are not involved in this incident." Not only Israel but also Saudi Arabia, a key US ally in the Middle East, stated that it had never discussed the Soleimani airstrike with the US. These countries neighboring Iran are reportedly concerned that if they are linked to the killing of Commander Soleimani, they could become primary targets of Iran's missile retaliatory strikes.


This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.

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