[Where Did the Yoon Administration's 2030s Buy Homes?]

①In the End, the Only Place to Trust Is the Seoul Metropolitan Area

Share of Home Purchases in Seoul Doubled... 2030s Rush to the Capital

During the two years of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, the trend of home ownership among people in their 20s and 30s split into two main directions: "Seoul, even if it's small" or "Gyeonggi-do, where it's cheaper and there are more benefits." Although their choices differed, their steps were headed towards the Seoul metropolitan area, while local regions were largely ignored. The concentration on the capital area became even stronger than during the Moon Jae In administration. As more young people view homes as a means of increasing assets and trust in real estate policies has collapsed, this is analyzed as a strategic choice to benefit from rising home prices.

According to the "Apartment Transaction Status by Age Group" from the Korea Real Estate Board on the 15th, the proportion of apartment purchases in Seoul by people in their 20s and 30s jumped from 6.14% in 2022, when the Yoon Suk Yeol administration began, to 13.39% last year. Among the 17 major metropolitan local governments, Seoul saw the largest increase over the two years. The share of Seoul apartment purchases by the 2030s peaked at 14.81% in 2019 under the Moon Jae In administration, then fell to 12.84% in 2020 and 10.00% in 2021. It dropped to 6.14% during the 2022 transition of power, but quickly recovered under the Yoon administration.

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The 2030s' preference for Seoul apartments is also clearly reflected in floor area statistics. Last year, the average size of apartments purchased by people in their 20s and 30s in Seoul was 68.1 square meters, the smallest among the 17 metropolitan areas. This is much smaller than the "national standard" size of 84 square meters. Although they are forced to rely on bank loans, Seoul is still perceived as a "solid asset" by this group. Ham Youngjin, head of the Real Estate Research Lab at Woori Bank, analyzed, "Based on their experience, the preference for safe assets is manifesting as a concentration on Seoul," and added, "Even when apartment prices fell nationwide in 2023, Seoul managed to 'defend prices' relatively well, which further strengthened that belief."

The reason the 2030s' home-buying trend is noteworthy is because they are the "big players" in the apartment market. Last year, people in their 20s and 30s bought more apartments nationwide than any other age group, purchasing 148,918 units in one year. This accounted for 30.2% of the total 492,052 apartment transactions during the same period. Next were those in their 40s (128,920 units, 26.2%), 50s (105,013 units, 21.3%), 60s (69,418 units, 14.1%), and those over 70 (30,991 units, 6.3%). Many in the 2030s have lived in apartments since childhood, and their preference for apartments as a housing type is very high.

For those in their 20s and 30s who find it difficult to move into Seoul, they have turned their attention to the surrounding metropolitan areas such as Gyeonggi Province and Incheon. Last year, the proportion of apartment purchases by people in their 20s and 30s in Gyeonggi Province reached 28.83%. This is an increase of 5.24 percentage points compared to two years ago (23.59%). Since the Korea Real Estate Board started compiling related statistics in 2019, Gyeonggi Province has been the region where people in their 20s and 30s have purchased the most apartments annually in terms of purchase volume. When combined with Incheon (6.23% in 2024), the proportion of apartment purchases by people in their 20s and 30s in the metropolitan area jumped from 35.17% in 2022 to 48.45% in 2024. Conversely, the proportion of apartment purchases in provincial areas declined from 64.83% in 2022 to 51.55% in 2024.

Experts describe this as "effectively a 'second In-Seoul' strategy." Park Wongap, senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, said, "In reality, 2030s who cannot afford the high apartment prices in Seoul are showing a 'leaving Seoul' trend by choosing Gyeonggi-do as an alternative." Ham also said, "If they can't get into Seoul, they are moving to areas in Gyeonggi-do with convenient transportation, strong living infrastructure, and institutional benefits such as the price ceiling system or special supply for first-time homebuyers."

Whether it's "In-Seoul" or "leaving Seoul," experts generally point out that the 2030s' concentration on the metropolitan area stems from a "lack of trust in the government's real estate policy." The 2030s have no expectation that the government will achieve stable or lower home prices, and are instead focused on the "one smart home" strategy to benefit from future price increases.

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The Yoon Suk Yeol administration's stance on deregulation has been inconsistent, and the lack of policy predictability has heightened anxiety among buyers. Policies often fell through in a political environment where the ruling party is outnumbered in the legislature. Following the Moon Jae In administration, regulations on multiple home ownership continued, deepening the polarization between preferred and non-preferred regions. Especially since the second half of 2023, as Seoul apartment prices began to rise again, the sense of urgency to "buy now, before it's too late" increased.

Yang Jiyeong, deputy head of asset management consulting at Shinhan Investment Corp., analyzed, "Today's 2030s are the generation most actively studying real estate," adding, "They quickly acquire information through YouTube and online communities, and are moving based on the market, not policies."