On the 10th, supporters of President Yoon Seokyeol waved the Taegeukgi and the Stars and Stripes at passing vehicles near the presidential residence in Hannam-dong, Yongsan-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yoon Dongju

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Six out of ten Koreans expressed support for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. Compared to three weeks ago, one out of ten people has shifted from supporting impeachment to opposing it. In the political turmoil following the president's impeachment, the approval ratings of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party have narrowed rapidly. Public opinion has fluctuated significantly compared to immediately after the impeachment.

According to a poll by Gallup Korea conducted from the 7th to the 9th (with 1,004 respondents nationwide aged 18 or older, using wireless phone interviews; margin of error ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level; response rate 16.3%), 64% of respondents supported the impeachment motion against President Yoon, which was initiated by the National Assembly after the declaration of martial law on the 3rd of last month. Those opposed to impeachment accounted for 32%. While support for impeachment is generally dominant, in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, the two sides were tied at 47%. By age group, opposition to impeachment was higher among those in their 60s and 70s.

Compared to last month's poll (conducted December 10-12), support for impeachment has dropped by 11 percentage points, while opposition has increased by 11 points. In the previous poll, support for impeachment was high across all regions and age groups. However, the intensity of support for impeachment has generally weakened across the board. Gallup Korea explained, "Support for impeachment among those in their 20s to 50s fell from the 80% range last month to the 70% range, the 60s shifted from majority support to a split, and those aged 70 and above now show majority opposition."

Former President Park Geunhye is moving to the venue to attend the '107th Birth Anniversary Cultural Event of Former President Park Chunghee' held last November at Gumi Expo in Gyeongbuk. Photo by Yonhap News

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This trend differs from that seen eight years ago during the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye. According to Gallup Korea, right before the National Assembly vote on Park's impeachment, 81% supported and 14% opposed, and by early March the following year, the numbers had barely changed (77% support, 18% oppose).

Compared to Park's impeachment, this time there are significant differences, such as criticism of procedural issues, the impeachment motion against Acting President Han Duck-soo, the indictment of Acting President Choi Sangmok, political turmoil over changes to the impeachment bill, strong opposition to impeachment among far-right conservatives, confusion during the execution of President Yoon's arrest warrant, and the failure of the first attempt to execute the warrant. Another notable difference is that the People Power Party has shown a united front, unlike the divisions seen in the past. A deeper look reveals that the current impeachment situation is fundamentally different from before.

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Unlike the impeachment of former President Park, which was effectively handled through bipartisan agreement, this impeachment was led by the opposition with participation from some ruling party lawmakers. In the past, Park's downfall began gradually, starting with a parliamentary investigation in 2016 and the so-called "tablet scandal" on October 24. In contrast, President Yoon's impeachment was achieved just 11 days after the declaration of martial law, marking a rapid downfall. While Park's approval rating had plummeted to 5% before her impeachment, Yoon's was at 11% when he was impeached. The urgent political situation under martial law led to a disregard for bipartisan agreement. However, subsequent issues such as the refusal of the acting president to approve special prosecutors, and the lack of bipartisan agreement, resulted in further crises.

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Of course, the absence of political leadership played a significant role in this process. Jung Sung-ho, a key figure in the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction of the Democratic Party, expressed concerns about the management of state affairs. Speaking to reporters, Jung said, "Even if the president committed serious illegal acts, the Democratic Party should have actively sought dialogue with the ruling party, which represents the will of the people," adding, "I think there was a lack of such efforts." He criticized the Democratic Party leadership for not engaging in behind-the-scenes talks with the ruling party after the dual special prosecutor bill was rejected in a re-vote.

Members of the People Power Party are strongly protesting Speaker Woo Wonshik during the plenary session of the National Assembly on the 27th, where the motion to impeach Prime Minister Han Ducksoo was submitted, raising concerns about the quorum required for the impeachment motion to pass (majority of all members). Photo by Kim Hyunmin

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Impeachment trauma, especially among People Power Party supporters, has also played a major role.

Unlike eight years ago, when impeachment was triggered by a corruption scandal, the current impeachment of President Yoon is a much more serious matter. Moreover, with issues such as the Myeong Taegyun Gate raising questions about the People Power Party's candidate nominations, the party has appeared to be caught up in a state of insurrection. Initially, some People Power Party lawmakers voiced support for lifting martial law or for the impeachment motion. However, the party as a whole resisted, facing an existential crisis. The party raised procedural objections at every step, fueling controversy. These objections, often seen as stalling tactics, helped consolidate the conservative base and became a source of strength in themselves.

Lee Jae Myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 10th. Photo by Kim Hyun Min

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The fact that Lee Jaemyung, leader of the Democratic Party, is the top opposition presidential candidate also complicates the situation. In the past, even after Park's impeachment, the ruling camp hoped to overturn the election by fielding figures like former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Thus, the impeachment of Park was viewed independently of the next presidential race. This time, however, with a clear divide between Yoon and Lee in the last presidential election, ruling party supporters have reacted more fiercely.

Party approval ratings have changed dramatically. In a poll conducted three weeks after the impeachment, the Democratic Party's approval rating fell by 12 points to 36%. The People Power Party's approval rating rose by 10 points to 34%. This is seen as the result of political instability following the impeachment and the re-consolidation of the People Power Party's support base.

Lee Jae Myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 10th. Photo by Kim Hyun Min

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A Gallup Korea official commented, "The polarization between political camps has become even more pronounced." The official added, "In the early days of the martial law crisis last month, the ruling party's support did not fall sharply, and the party consistently maintained its opposition to impeachment without signs of a split, which is a stark contrast to the impeachment crisis eight years ago. Back in 2016, the then-ruling Saenuri Party (now People Power Party) had approval ratings of 29-34% from the April general election to early October, but after the corruption scandal erupted, it dropped to as low as 12%."

For more details on the poll, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.