On the eve of the November 5th U.S. presidential election, an international news article has drawn attention by highlighting the reasons why both Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris could each win the presidency.

The British broadcaster BBC reported on the 4th (local time), just one day before the election, an article from Washington titled "10 Reasons Why Both Harris and Trump Can Expect Victory." The outlet noted that major polls continue to show a close race within the margin of error up to the final days of the campaign, emphasizing that both candidates have convincing reasons to believe they hold an advantage.

5 Reasons Why Trump Can Win

1. He is not currently in power.
- 72% of Americans are "dissatisfied with the current direction of government"
2. Negative news such as legal risks has less impact.
3. Warnings about illegal immigration are gaining sympathy.
4. More people without degrees than those with degrees.
- Workers who used to support the Democratic Party have returned to the Republican Party.
5. He has positioned himself as a strong person.
- No major wars occurred during his term.

The first reason former President Trump could win is that he is not currently in power. At every rally, Trump has been asking, "Are you better off than four years ago?" For voters who consider the economy the most important issue, it is impossible to ignore the hardships caused by soaring inflation following the pandemic. The BBC noted, "Globally, surging living costs after the pandemic have led to regime changes in several countries due to public resentment against incumbent governments," and added, "American voters are also hoping for change." The UK itself saw a change in government to the Labour Party in an early general election last July.

According to a Gallup poll released last month, only one in four Americans said they were satisfied with the direction the country is heading. Seventy-two percent of respondents were dissatisfied. Additionally, nearly 62% believed the economic situation would worsen. The BBC also pointed out that while Vice President Harris has tried to highlight "change" and "renewal," she has struggled to distance herself from President Joe Biden as his vice president.

The second reason is that Trump appears largely unaffected by various negative news, including legal risks. After the unprecedented criminal convictions and multiple indictments following the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, Trump’s approval rating has remained stable above 40% throughout the year.

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

While Democrats and anti-Trump conservatives argue that Trump is "unfit for office" for refusing to accept the results of a democratic election and inciting violence, a majority of Republicans instead agree with Trump’s claim that he is the victim of a political witch hunt. In such a deeply divided environment, the BBC reported that Trump only needs to persuade a small group of swing voters.

Trump’s warnings about "illegal immigration," a key attack against Harris, are also resonating with voters. Besides the economy, immigration has been a major campaign issue for Trump, while Harris has focused on abortion rights. Recent polls show voters prefer Trump’s stance on immigration. Notably, Trump’s support has risen among Latino voters, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, which is a cause for concern for Harris.

The fourth reason is that there are more people without college degrees than with them. The BBC observed, "Trump appeals to voters who feel forgotten and left behind, changing the face of American politics." Specifically, traditional Democratic working-class voters have shifted to the Republican Party, and tariffs to protect American industry have become more common. If Trump can boost turnout in rural and suburban swing states, he could offset losses among moderate Republicans.

The final reason is Trump’s image as a strong leader. He has repeatedly claimed that there were no major wars during his presidency. The BBC noted that many Americans are angry at the billions of dollars in aid sent to Ukraine and Israel and believe the U.S. has grown weaker under the Biden administration. Amid rising geopolitical risks, the outlet added, Trump has built a stronger leader image than Harris or other rivals in the eyes of most voters.

5 Reasons Harris Can Win

1. She is not Trump.
-Defines Trump as a threat to democracy.
2. She is not Biden either.
-The clearest difference is age. She turned the Democratic Party's old-age risk into an advantage.
3. She advocates for women's rights, including abortion rights.
4. College-educated people and seniors have high voter turnout.
-The Democratic Party receives more support from these groups.
5. Raised more campaign funds than Trump.

There are also reasons to be optimistic about Vice President Harris’s chances. The BBC first emphasized, "She is not Trump." Despite Trump’s strengths, he remains a highly polarizing figure. This was a key reason why over 7 million more Americans voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

This is also why Harris has labeled Trump a "fascist" and a "threat to democracy," seeking to highlight the "fear of Trump’s return" among voters. A July Ipsos poll found that 4 out of 5 Americans believe the country is spiraling out of control. This gives Harris an opportunity to attract not just Democrats, but also moderate Republicans and independents wary of Trump.

The second reason is that "she is not Biden." After President Biden’s first TV debate in June, Democrats were gripped by a sense of crisis that they could lose this year’s election. The party has since rallied around Harris, united by the need to defeat Trump. The BBC noted that while Republicans have tried to tie Harris to unpopular Biden administration policies, she has managed to neutralize some of these attacks.

The most distinct difference is age. Voters have long expressed concerns about Biden’s advanced age and his ability to perform his duties. But with the race now changed, age risk has boomeranged onto Trump. Harris is 60 years old, making her 18 years younger than Trump.

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

Additionally, Harris’s advocacy for abortion rights and women’s rights was cited as another reason. This election is the first since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision, which had constitutionally protected abortion rights. Voters concerned about abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris. Moreover, her candidacy as the first potential female president in U.S. history carries significant historical meaning. The BBC assessed that this could strengthen Harris’s advantage among women voters.

The BBC also noted that college-educated individuals and seniors are typically high-turnout groups, and that Harris and the Democrats enjoy greater support from these demographics. In contrast, Trump is more popular among young men and people without college degrees, who tend to have lower turnout rates.

Finally, in the "money war" of the U.S. presidential election, where enormous sums are spent, Harris has so far raised more funds. The BBC highlighted, "The 2024 election will be the most expensive in history," and cited major foreign media reporting that Harris has raised more political funds since becoming the Democratic nominee in July than Trump has since January. This financial advantage and the resulting political advertising campaigns are expected to play a significant role in what is expected to be a fiercely contested election.