Even Napolimafia (Kwon Sungjun), the winner of Netflix's chef survival reality show "Black and White Chef" and owner-chef of a famous Italian restaurant, had to taste failure when it came to opening a cafe. Chef Kwon Sungjun candidly shared the harsh reality of the domestic cafe market, advising self-employed individuals considering opening a cafe, "I recommend not doing it."

Chef Kwon shared his past experience of opening a cafe during a recent appearance on a YouTube show. At one point, he operated a cafe called "Espresso Bar," sticking so faithfully to his concept that he classified Americano as a "non-coffee" item. However, the store was soon closed.

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He asserted that the reason for the difficulty in surviving in the cafe business is that "no matter how well you prepare, there is an 80% chance of failure," adding, "It's because it's a fixed-cost business, and the competition is fierce. It's hard to differentiate yourself, and the investment costs are high."

He continued, "With restaurants, even if the interior isn't great, people will come back if the food is good. Plus, if the menus are different, like Korean or Western cuisine, they're not really competitors. But cafes are all the same. So every cafe next door is automatically a competitor."

Chef Kwon strongly advised, "If you really want to open a cafe, please ask me or writer Kim Poong first, and seriously reconsider at least three times. Even if you still want to do it after thinking three times, I would still recommend you not to."

Other self-employed individuals who watched the video also agreed. One said, "If one cafe does well, five more will open nearby," warning, "If you enter the business thinking it's easy, you'll just lose your hard-earned money."

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As Chef Kwon pointed out, the domestic cafe market has already reached saturation. According to the "Service Industry Survey Report" released by Statistics Korea last June, there were 100,729 cafes in Korea as of the end of 2022, surpassing 100,000 for the first time ever. This is about twice the total number of convenience stores operated by the four major chains in Korea (approximately 55,000).

Total sales at coffee shops reached 15.5 trillion won in the same year, with 270,000 people employed in the industry. Small-scale shops with 1 to 4 employees accounted for 84,000 locations, making up nearly 84% of all cafes.

The reason the popularity of opening cafes hasn't waned seems to be the low "barrier to entry." It's a small business item that requires relatively little initial investment, and if you use ready-made products, it doesn't demand high skill levels.

However, as Chef Kwon pointed out, "long-term survival" in the cafe business appears to be unrelated to the ease of starting up. According to data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, the number of new cafes increased by 45% over the past 10 years, but the number of closed cafes surged by 181%.

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The situation is similar in Seoul, where many office workers are concentrated. According to "Seoul Commercial District Analysis Service," a report on local business districts, 5,293 new coffee and beverage shops opened last year, but 4,090 closed during the same period. The survival rate for cafes in Seoul over three years was only 51.9%, and the five-year survival rate plummeted to 34.9%.