Trump: "Ceasefire Barely Holding... Considering Resumption of 'Project Freedom'" (Comprehensive)
U.S. Military: "Nuclear Submarine Arrives in the Mediterranean" Pressures Iran
Iran: "Prepared for Military Response... They Will Be Shocked"
Crude Oil and U.S. Gasoline Prices Surge... Fears of Supply Crisis
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of the risk that the ceasefire with Iran may break down. He also hinted at the possible resumption of "Project Freedom," a military operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the U.S. threat, Iran stated that it is prepared to retaliate against any attack. With the collapse of the armistice agreement and the current ceasefire agreement in jeopardy, concerns are mounting over a potential resumption of full-scale war.
Trump: "Project Freedom Could Go Beyond Escorting Ships to a Larger Operation"
At a press conference held at the White House on the 11th (local time), President Trump described the ceasefire with Iran as "incredibly weak, the weakest it's ever been," and likened it to "being on massive life support, with doctors coming in and saying there's about a 1% chance."
Earlier, in an interview with Fox News, he mentioned the possibility of resuming Project Freedom. Fox News reported, "President Trump stated that if Project Freedom is resumed, the operation could go beyond escorting ships to something much larger," but added that "no final decision has yet been made." Project Freedom was a military operation launched by the U.S. military on the 4th to rescue ships trapped in the Gulf area due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, it was temporarily suspended just two days after its initiation to hold ceasefire negotiations with Iran.
On the same day, the U.S. military also delivered an unusual warning by announcing the arrival of a nuclear-powered submarine armed with nuclear weapons in the Mediterranean. The U.S. Navy's Sixth Fleet announced in a statement that "an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine arrived at the Strait of Gibraltar off southern Spain the previous day," emphasizing that "equipped with a launch platform for submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), it is the most survivable of America's three major nuclear forces." This nuclear submarine, which can launch nuclear weapons (intercontinental ballistic missiles) from undetectable locations underwater, represents a powerful show of force against Iran.
The United States has also increased economic pressure. The Treasury Department has announced a reward of up to USD 15 million (approximately KRW 2.2 billion) for information related to the funding channels of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Three Iranian nationals and nine organizations based in Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman have also been newly designated for sanctions on charges of assisting the IRGC in selling and transporting Iranian oil to China.
Some observers speculate that President Trump may temporarily resume full-scale war to increase his leverage in ceasefire negotiations. Quoting senior U.S. government officials, Israel's Channel 12 reported, "President Trump and the White House now believe that progress through diplomatic means alone is difficult. They are leaning toward resuming military action to pressure Iran into accepting their demands."
Iran: "Prepared for Military Response... You Will Be Shocked"
Iran has also stated that it is fully prepared for a military response. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and head of Iran's delegation in the ceasefire negotiations, wrote on the social media platform X that "our military is ready to respond decisively to any aggression" and "we have prepared all options, and they will be shocked by our response." He went on to say, "There is no alternative but to accept the rights of Iran as outlined in the new 14-article proposal. Any other approach will end with no conclusion whatsoever and will only result in repeated failure."
The Iranian military has also pressured the U.S. by deploying additional submarines in the Strait of Hormuz. The previous day, Iranian Army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia told the state-run IRNA news agency, "We have deployed additional submarines to the Strait of Hormuz," adding, "From now on, countries that impose sanctions on Iran, following the precedent set by the United States, will undoubtedly face difficulties transiting the Strait of Hormuz."
The New York Times (NYT), citing Iranian experts, reported, "Iran continues to demand war reparations and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, but these are conditions the United States cannot possibly accept," and analyzed, "This reflects the current Iranian leadership, emboldened after surviving attacks from the United States and Israel."
International Oil Prices and U.S. Gasoline Prices Surge... Fears of Prolonged Supply Crisis
With the collapse of the U.S.-Iran armistice agreement and the ceasefire now under threat, international oil prices have soared once again. On this day at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery closed at USD 98.97 per barrel, up 2.8% from the previous session. On the London ICE Futures Exchange, Brent crude for July delivery ended the day at USD 104.21 per barrel, up 2.9% from the previous day.
Concerns have resurfaced that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a supply crisis. Morgan Stanley also stated in a report, "If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened within the next four to six weeks, oil supply could become extremely tight starting in early June." The report further noted, "Until now, the release of oil inventories has kept prices relatively stable, but currently, both floating oil stocks and refined product inventories are rapidly declining."
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Gasoline prices in the United States are also surging. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of the 11th, the average price of gasoline nationwide was USD 4.520 per gallon. This represents a 51.6% increase compared to the average price of USD 2.980 on the day of the Iran war, February 28. It is also 44.1% higher than last year's average price of USD 3.135.
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