[6.3 Election] Wando County Governor Race... Kim Shin Leads Woo Hongseop Within Margin of Error

Kim Shin 49.7% vs Woo Hongseop 45.7%: 4.0 Percentage Point Gap
Kim Shin Leads Among Men and in District 1, Woo Hongseop Leads Among Women and in District 2
Woo Hongseop’s Organizational Strength vs Kim Shin’s Individual Appeal: Final Showdown in the Last Two Weeks

The race for the governor of Wando County, widely regarded as a stronghold for the Democratic Party of Korea, has entered a foggy and unpredictable phase. With just 17 days remaining until the June 3 local elections, independent candidate Kim Shin and Democratic Party candidate Woo Hongseop are locked in a neck-and-neck contest within the margin of error.

According to the results of a public opinion poll conducted by Korea Information Research Co., Ltd. at the request of Gwangju CBS No Cut News, Namdo Ilbo, and BBS Gwangju Buddhist Broadcasting, 501 Wando County residents were surveyed on May 15-16. The poll found that independent candidate Kim Shin scored 49.7% for the likelihood of being elected as the next Wando County governor, while Democratic Party candidate Woo Hongseop recorded 45.7%.

(From left) Independent candidate Kim Shin and Democratic Party candidate Woo Hongseop for Wando County Governor

The gap between the two candidates stands at 4.0 percentage points, indicating a fierce competition within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points). In the survey on suitability for the position of governor, Kim Shin recorded 51.5%, and Woo Hongseop 44.9%, once again showing a close race within the margin of error.

The most notable feature of this election is the decoupling phenomenon between the overwhelming party support rate and the criteria for candidate selection. The survey showed Democratic Party support in Wando County at 78.8%, an overwhelming majority. In contrast, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party received 4.3%, and the People Power Party garnered 4.0%.

Even with the Democratic Party’s support rate approaching 80%, voters indicated that the top priority in their decision-making was the candidate’s personal integrity and competence (41.2%), rather than party affiliation (9.6%). This was followed by policy pledges (22.1%) and political experience (14.9%). This suggests a clear clash between Woo Hongseop’s appeal for 'stability' based on the Democratic Party’s organizational strength and Kim Shin’s emphasis on 'individual merit' as his competitive edge.

The support bases for the two candidates are distinctly divided and balanced across gender, age, and region. By gender, Kim Shin led among men (54.0% vs. Woo Hongseop’s 42.0%), while Woo Hongseop was ahead among women (49.5% vs. Kim Shin’s 45.2%). By age, Woo Hongseop had the advantage among voters in their 40s (54.9%), whereas Kim Shin was favored in other age groups (18-29, 30s, and 50 and above).

Regional voting intentions were also split evenly. In the first district (Wando-eup, Nohwa-eup, Soan-myeon, and Bogil-myeon), Kim Shin led with 58.0% compared to Woo Hongseop’s 39.6%.

In the second district (Geumil-eup, Gunoe-myeon, Sinji-myeon, Gogeum-myeon, Yaksan-myeon, Cheongsan-myeon, Geumdang-myeon, and Saengil-myeon), Woo Hongseop was ahead with 53.0% compared to Kim Shin’s 39.6%.

The Deciding Factors: Voter Turnout and Supporter Mobilization

As election day approaches, both camps appear to be further solidifying their bases. A total of 89.5% of respondents said they would continue to support their current preferred candidate.

In particular, Woo Hongseop’s supporters showed slightly higher cohesion at 93.7%, compared to 89.0% among Kim Shin’s supporters, demonstrating robust organizational strength. With little room for the undecided vote to shift, the outcome is expected to depend on which camp can mobilize more of its supporters to the polls.

With 96.7% of Wando County residents expressing a strong intention to vote, attention is now focused on whether Democratic Party candidate Woo Hongseop, backed by solid party organization, can rally support in the final stretch, or whether independent candidate Kim Shin can create an upset based on his individual appeal, as voters make their final choice on June 3.

This poll was conducted by Korea Information Research Co., Ltd. on May 15-16, targeting 501 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Wando County, Jeollanam-do, using a 100% automated response method with virtual wireless phone numbers, at the request of Gwangju CBS No Cut News, Namdo Ilbo, and BBS Gwangju Buddhist Broadcasting. The response rate was 27.3%, and the margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.