"Don't Come to Work from Tomorrow": Two Million Face Unemployment Crisis...Iran Shaken by War Shock
Over Two Million Direct and Indirect Unemployed Amid War, Blockades, and Internet Shutdown
Amid prolonged military conflict with the United States, Iran’s economy is collapsing rapidly. Industrial facility damage, port blockades, and the government’s internet shutdown measures have combined to contract business activities and cause a surge in unemployment. Analysts point out that structural vulnerabilities that had accumulated even before the war have now been exposed all at once, pushing the entire economy into a multifaceted crisis.
"1 Million Jobs Disappear"...Unemployment Soars
According to The New York Times (NYT) on May 11 (local time), mass layoffs and restructuring are taking place across Iran following the outbreak of war. Gholamhossein Mohammadi, an Iranian government official, stated that about 1 million jobs have been lost, and 2 million people are now unemployed either directly or indirectly. The shock is also evident in the job market. At the end of April, one job search platform received more than 310,000 resumes in a single day, setting an all-time record.
Port Blockades, Industrial Damage...Wave of Corporate Crises
The aftermath of war has led to attacks on major raw material production facilities and core infrastructure, while U.S. port blockades against Iran have further exacerbated the situation, causing a sharp deterioration in the corporate operating environment. Supply chain disruptions and instability in raw material procurement are occurring simultaneously, shaking the very foundation of production.
In reality, some companies are responding by suspending or reducing production without making official layoff announcements. “Unofficial restructuring” is spreading in the form of non-renewal of contracts, reduced working hours, and unpaid leave. This suggests that potential unemployment not captured in statistics is also increasing significantly.
Large-scale layoffs are also continuing at industrial sites. One textile factory in the west reportedly laid off 700 out of 800 workers, and a northern plant has also carried out layoffs involving several hundred employees. The Iranian Industrial Adjustment Committee warned that up to 3.5 million workers could be affected. This indicates that the structural foundation of employment across the economy is being shaken.
Internet Shutdown Direct Hit...IT Industry Effectively Paralyzed
The digital industry has been hit particularly hard. The government’s internet shutdown has effectively paralyzed online-based industries. Until now, the IT industry had shown potential for growth even under sanctions, but it is estimated that up to $80 million in losses are occurring per day due to this measure.
The e-commerce company Digikala recently laid off 200 employees, while another company, Kamba, ultimately announced its closure. This crisis goes beyond a single sector, as it is seen as a sign that the future growth engines of the Iranian economy are being weakened, making the situation even more serious.
"Crisis Worsened"...Policy Response Backfires
The Iranian government has also recognized the seriousness of the situation and is taking action. Mojtaba Khamenei recently called on companies to refrain from layoffs, but there are questions about the effectiveness of this measure on the ground.
In fact, there are claims that the government's policies have increased the burden on companies. To cope with rising prices, the government raised the minimum wage by 60 percent, but this has increased labor costs and triggered further restructuring. For companies already struggling with management difficulties, it has become even harder to maintain employment.
Long-Term Impact Unavoidable
U.S. President Donald Trump is using Iran’s economic hardship as part of his pressure strategy. He maintained a hardline stance, stating, "Iran's economy must fail for the United States to win." In contrast, the Iranian government continues to insist that it will not yield to external pressure.
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As a result, the combination of war, sanctions, and policy variables are intertwining to push Iran’s economy toward the possibility of a prolonged recession. Experts believe that the current shock will not be resolved in the short term, and that the aftereffects across employment and industry are likely to persist for a considerable period.
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