Three-Way Race Set in Buk-gu Gap... Ha Jungwoo Leads Amid Conservative Split

Park and Han Locked in a Tight Race in the 20% Range, Ha Jungwoo Leads in the 30% Range
Intensifying Conservative Infighting Amidst Competition for Future Leadership
Conservative Turf War Without Unification, Three-Way Split Dilutes Votes
Ha Jungwoo Strengthens Alliance with Jeon Jae Soo, Differentiates with AI Policy Pledge

As the Busan Buk-gu Gap by-election has solidified into a three-way race, Ha Jungwoo, the Democratic Party candidate, is showing a leading trend. This is interpreted as a result of vote-splitting due to the fact that both Park Minsik, former Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs, and Han Donghoon, former leader of the People Power Party, are running simultaneously, effectively creating a "conservative turf war" dynamic.

According to the political community on May 6, with the People Power Party's candidate nomination finalized, the election has officially taken shape as a three-way contest. The election is effectively unfolding as a "conservative turf war." Former leader Han is positioning himself as the right person to rebuild the conservative bloc and is emphasizing a head-to-head match, while former minister Park is also making it clear he intends to stay in the race with no plans to step aside.

Three candidates running in the June 3 by-election for the Buk-gu Gap district of Busan. From left, Ha Jung-woo, the candidate from the Democratic Party, Park Min-sik, the candidate from the People Power Party, and Han Dong-hoon, the independent candidate. Photo by The Asia Business Daily (photos of Ha Jung-woo and Han Dong-hoon) and Yonhap News Agency (photo of Park Min-sik).

Trends in public opinion polls reflect this as well. In a survey conducted by SBS from May 1 to 3, support rates in the three-way race stood at 38% for Ha Jungwoo, 26% for Park Minsik, and 21% for Han Donghoon. While the two conservative candidates are neck-and-neck in the 20% range, Ha is maintaining a clear lead outside the margin of error.

This survey, conducted entirely through mobile phone interviews, targeted 503 voters in Busan Buk-gu Gap, with a response rate of 14.4% and a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

Within political circles, these figures have led to the analysis that "if the conservative camp fails to unite behind a single candidate, securing a victory will be difficult." In particular, if the three-way race persists, the threshold for winning could drop to around 30%, meaning that if current trends continue, Ha Jungwoo may gain a significant advantage.

However, there appears to be little momentum for unification talks within the conservative camp. The People Power Party leadership is drawing a line, even mentioning the possibility of disciplining pro-Han lawmakers who support Han Donghoon. Some interpret this as reflecting not just election strategy but also competition for future conservative leadership.

Pro-Han figures are also not backing down. Assemblywoman Han Jia, despite disciplinary warnings from party leader Jang Donghyeok, emphasized her commitment to supporting Han Donghoon by saying, "If it helps rebuild the conservative bloc, I will go down to Busan ten times, a hundred times if needed."

Park Minsik is emphasizing his determination to finish the race. Some analyze this as a strategy to maintain his political standing, with an eye on a potential run in the 2028 general election even if he loses this time. In fact, Park appeared on KBS Radio on this day and dismissed the possibility of unification, saying, "If you hope for unification, wake up from that dream."

While the conservative camp is showing signs of division, Ha Jungwoo is focusing on expanding his recognition by strengthening his alliance with Jeon Jae Soo, the Democratic Party's Busan mayoral candidate. The two candidates are scheduled to jointly announce artificial intelligence (AI)-related pledges at the Busan City Council on this day. Their strategy is to differentiate themselves by taking the lead on policy issues.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.