"DRAM to Double, NAND to Quadruple"... Semiconductor Sales Forecast to Surge 62.7% This Year

Semiconductor Revenue Approaches $1.4 Trillion Based on Shipments
"Memory Bottleneck to Persist Through 2027"
Computing and Data Storage Segments Expected to Benefit

It has been analyzed that global semiconductor sales will grow by 62.7% year-on-year in 2026. Sustained demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and the resulting record-breaking price surge in memory semiconductors are expected to rapidly expand the overall market share at an unprecedented pace.

On April 24, market research firm Omdia reported in its latest publication that, "The global DRAM market value is projected to double from the previous year, and the NAND market could surge by up to four times." Omdia has significantly raised its growth forecast for global semiconductor market revenue in 2026 to 62.7%. Based on shipment value, total semiconductor revenue is estimated to approach 1.4 trillion dollars (approximately 2,076 trillion won).

The drivers behind this growth are a shortage of memory supply and the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) boom. As semiconductor companies concentrate their capabilities on producing HBM—a high value-added product—the supply of conventional, general-purpose memory chips has paradoxically declined. As a result, the spot price of 16Gb DDR5 DRAM soared from 5.30 dollars on April 17, 2025, to 38.5 dollars on April 9, 2026, marking a 598% increase. Similarly, the 512Gb TLC NAND price skyrocketed from 2.78 dollars to 21.68 dollars over the same period, a 680% increase.

Omdia stated, "Although HBM accounts for a smaller production volume, its unit price is significantly higher, which is driving overall sales growth," adding, "This resulting memory supply bottleneck is expected to continue through 2027."

By investment segment, computing and data storage are forecast to lead the growth. Omdia projects that revenue in this segment will surge by 90% year-on-year in 2026, surpassing 700 billion dollars (about 960 trillion won).

This is the result of a major server replacement cycle among global conglomerates, combined with aggressive capital expenditures by hyperscalers (large-scale data center operators). In particular, as big tech companies accelerate the transition from legacy hardware to next-generation silicon and advanced connectivity solutions capable of supporting high-performance AI workloads, the average selling price (ASP) of semiconductors is rising even further.

The outlook is also positive for consumer electronics and wireless communication sectors. While the number of smartphones sold is expected to remain stagnant, the increase in manufacturing costs caused by rising memory prices is being reflected in higher sale prices, and the continued launch of AI-enabled flagship models and foldable phones is expected to boost overall revenue. Smartwatches and wellness wearables are also predicted to show significant growth.

However, some caution against excessive optimism. Omdia’s principal analyst Maisson Robles-Bruce noted, "AI demand is rapidly evolving beyond simple Q&A, becoming a major cash flow driver for the semiconductor industry," but also pointed out, "It remains uncertain how quickly suppliers can expand production capacity, and whether companies can achieve a return on investment (ROI) that matches the massive AI capital expenditures in the long term."

Additionally, the report highlights macroeconomic variables such as tariffs, energy costs, and geopolitical tensions, as well as the key risk that current growth is driven by 'price increases' rather than sales volume. While dynamics similar to past cryptocurrency mining booms or memory supercycles are being observed, it is assessed that the scale and scope of the current cycle are unprecedented.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.