"300 Billion-Barrel Crude Oil Shortfall by 2050... Ultra-Deepwater Exploration Expands" - Wood Mackenzie

According to an analysis, cumulative global crude oil demand is expected to reach approximately 1 trillion barrels by 2050, but currently producing oil fields can only supply 700 billion barrels, leaving a supply shortfall of 300 billion barrels.

As a result, countries around the world are seeking to diversify supply sources and enhance strategic energy security, leading to renewed investment in ultra-deepwater frontier exploration, which involves exploring very deep areas of the ocean.

On April 23 (local time), energy and natural resources research firm Wood Mackenzie released a press statement entitled “Major Oil Companies Increase High-Impact Exploration Investment to Address 300 Billion Barrel Supply Gap and Prioritize Energy Security by 2050,” highlighting these findings.

Major oil companies are securing dominant stakes in promising frontier exploration blocks to acquire high-quality resources that can replace more expensive production. BP holds a 100% stake in the Boomerang oil, gas, and condensate discovery in Brazil announced in August 2025. Wood Mackenzie valued the successful development of Boomerang at $5.7 billion, noting that, as a result, the value creation in the exploration industry for 2025 surpassed $10 billion.

State-owned oil companies such as Petrobras of Brazil, Petronas of Malaysia, and TPAO of Turkey, along with seven major oil companies, possess the technological capabilities and risk appetite required for ultra-deepwater operations at depths exceeding 1,500 meters. Independent companies like Murphy, APA Corporation, and Woodside are also increasingly active in deepwater operations.

From 2021 to 2025, industry spending averaged $1.9 billion per year based on 633 exploration wells. The $1.6 billion invested in 388 wells in 2025 can be considered a temporary decrease. Despite the fact that daily drillship charter rates, which account for a significant portion of well costs, have nearly doubled, investment has remained stable. Non-operating partners such as QatarEnergy have provided additional capital through joint ventures in Brazil, Namibia, Cyprus, and the Republic of the Congo.

Andrew Latham, Senior Vice President of Energy Research, stated, “In 2026, the first four major wells we tracked all failed. This is the nature of the game, and participants are aware of the risks.” He added, “When ultra-deepwater exploration succeeds, even a single discovery like Boomerang can create billions of dollars in value. Companies with deepwater expertise are taking concentrated equity positions because the economics work even at $65 per barrel of Brent crude.”

Ultra-deepwater drilling is currently concentrated in regions where high-value discoveries have recently been made. Notable examples include ExxonMobil’s Guyana, Eni’s Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia, and Cyprus projects, BP’s Brazil, and TPAO’s Black Sea. Frontier exploration companies are also expanding their exploration scope to unexplored basins such as Brazil’s Foz do Amazonas and extension areas of established promising regions in Angola and Suriname.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.