[PB Notebook] Unwavering Investing Blooms - Long-Term Investing and Dollar-Cost Averaging

Seunghyun Kim, Head of Gold Private Banking Team, Hana Bank Yongsan PB Center

In order to end the war between the United States and Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, a historic event took place: the two countries held high-level talks for the first time in 47 years. Despite negotiating for 21 hours, the two sides ultimately failed to achieve any results and now await a second round of talks. While we try to console ourselves that this event will eventually come to an end, the reality is that market anxiety has not been fully resolved. At times like this, investors always find themselves in deep contemplation: “Is this moment an opportunity, or is it a risk to be avoided?” To find the answer, let us revisit the crises that have affected the market since 2000.

Seunghyun Kim, Head of Gold PB Team at Hana Bank Yongsan PB Center

Since the 2000s, the global stock market has experienced four major crises. Let’s examine how severe each shock was and how long it took for the market to recover.

① Dot-com bubble collapse (2000–2002), S&P 500 maximum drop: -49%. The market underwent a transformation comparable to the Industrial Revolution, but as a result, it struggled for three years. However, after the index began to rebound in 2003, it reached a new all-time high in about seven years.

② Global financial crisis (2008–2009), S&P 500 maximum drop: -57%. The fear of the worst financial system collapse in a century took hold. Ten years after the bottom, the index had risen by more than 300% from its low point.

③ COVID-19 pandemic (2020), plummeted -34% in just 33 days. This was the fastest drop in history, but the speed of recovery was also unprecedented. In just five months, the index regained its previous high, and by the end of the following year, it had more than doubled from its low.

④ U.S.-Iran war and failed negotiations (as of 2026): nuclear negotiations broke down, Hormuz Strait declared closed. The potential for reopening and the magnitude of the aftermath from the war are still uncertain. However, following a single remark from President Trump that Iran also wants negotiations, the S&P 500 recovered to its pre-war level, and the semiconductor sector, which drives the domestic index, is approaching its previous high. In short, those who did not leave the market at its lowest point ultimately reaped the greatest recovery.

Looking back at these four crises, we can see that when the bleakest news dominated the market, individual investors’ departures peaked, yet some investors quietly increased their asset allocations. Ten years later, the wealth gap between these two groups was determined not by who had better information, but by who stayed in the market longer.

Dollar-cost averaging is a mechanism that turns this lesson into an everyday investment practice. By consistently investing a fixed amount on a set day every month, you accumulate more shares during downturns for the same amount of money. Rather than worrying about whether “now is the bottom,” this approach turns market volatility into an opportunity for asset accumulation. By the end of 2019, an investor who had invested 1 million won per month for ten years starting from the 2008 financial crisis low had assets worth more than double those of someone who placed the same amount only in deposits. What made the difference was not extraordinary stock selection skills or market forecasting sense—it was the discipline to keep investing even when stock prices were halved.

When a crisis hits, even experts find it extremely difficult to predict the market’s short-term direction. However, the way to achieve stable and consistent returns in investing is not through short-term predictions, but through long-term patience and steady investing. If today’s market feels unsettling, that is a natural reaction. Still, rather than changing all your decisions because of that anxiety, it is important to revisit the principles you set at the beginning. While market conditions are always changing, the principles of long-term investing and dollar-cost averaging remain largely unchanged. If you continue investing steadily in today’s complex market, I believe the results will surely come to you as beautifully as flowers in spring. I sincerely hope that each and every account will be filled with a warm and beautiful spring.

Seunghyun Kim, Head of Gold Private Banking Team at Hana Bank Yongsan PB Center

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.