Will Vietnam and Australia Trips Be Impossible Next Month?… Flight Cancellations Loom Amid Iran War Fallout

Oil Shock Becomes Reality Amid Iran War
Aviation Fuel Prices Double Pre-War Levels
Vietnam and Australia Warn of April Supply Shortages

The fallout from the Middle East war is now impacting Asian air routes. As concerns over aviation fuel supply instability become a reality, there is a rapidly growing sense of alarm about possible mass flight cancellations, with some countries even discussing the possibility of limiting aircraft refueling. Analysts say that a wide-ranging shock is beginning to sweep through aviation, logistics, and daily life, particularly in Asia where energy dependency is high.

Incheon Airport Terminal 2 electronic display board.

"Local Refueling May Be Difficult"... Emergency Alerts at Airports

According to reports from The New York Times, Reuters, and other international media on March 23 (local time), major airports in Japan and Vietnam have recently notified airlines that "it may become difficult to refuel with aviation fuel locally." Typically, aircraft refuel at their destination for the return flight, but with local supply disruptions, there is now a possibility that even previously contracted fuel volumes may not be secured.

In reality, Vietnam relies on China and Thailand for more than half of its aviation fuel. However, following the Middle East crisis, both countries have consecutively restricted exports of refined oil products, effectively cutting off the supply chain. Similarly, Japan imports more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, making it difficult to avoid the consequences of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

USD 200 Per Barrel... Aviation Fuel Hits All-Time High

As the war between the United States and Iran drags on, aviation fuel prices have soared to over USD 200 per barrel, reaching an all-time high. This is more than double the price before the war.

Travelers visiting Terminal 1 of Incheon International Airport are lining up to check in.

Aviation fuel is considered a "vulnerable fuel" because it is subject to stricter quality standards and more demanding storage conditions than other fuels, making large-scale, long-term stockpiling difficult. For this reason, when supply chains are disrupted, shortages tend to appear first in aviation fuel.

Vietnam and Australia Hit Hardest

Countries with high import dependency are already taking a direct hit. Vietnam relies on imports for about 75% of its aviation fuel, and with all major suppliers blocked at the same time, an official warning has been issued that fuel shortages may occur as early as next month. Some airlines are even considering reducing domestic flights.

Australia also relies on imports for 90% of its fuel, and its aviation fuel reserves are only sufficient for about 32 days, making it one of the most vulnerable countries. Under these circumstances, it is expected that maintaining normal flight operations may become impossible.

Panic Buying and Rationing... Disruptions to Daily Life

The energy crisis is now spreading beyond aviation to everyday life. In India, panic buying of LPG for cooking is on the rise, and in some Southeast Asian countries, gas stations have been forced to close temporarily due to an inability to secure fuel supplies.

Vietnam is considering implementing a fuel rationing system, while Bangladesh has suspended university classes. The Philippines and Sri Lanka have introduced a four-day workweek to save energy.

Oil tanker arrived in India. Photo by AP Yonhap News

Governments across the region are making every effort to respond. Vietnam has requested shared strategic reserves from South Korea, Japan, China, and the United Arab Emirates, while Thailand and the Philippines are considering importing crude oil from Russia as part of efforts to diversify their sources of supply.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.