Export Momentum Continues in Q2 Despite Middle East Crisis... Semiconductors Lead the Way

KITA Releases Export Business Survey Index (EBSI) Results
Q2 EBSI Remains Firm at 106.6
Semiconductors (191.4) Show Strength Despite Sluggishness in Most Sectors

In the second quarter of this year, the business sentiment among export companies is expected to remain firm, continuing the positive trend from the previous quarter. Although the majority of industries are anticipated to face worsening export conditions due to military conflict between the United States and Iran, the strong performance of the semiconductor sector, which accounts for a large proportion of exports, is expected to provide momentum.

According to the '2026 Q2 Export Business Survey Index (EBSI)' report released on March 24 by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) Institute for International Trade and Commerce, the EBSI for the second quarter of this year is estimated at 106.6, exceeding the baseline of 100 for the third consecutive quarter.

The EBSI is an index that surveys and analyzes domestic export companies' outlook on export conditions for the following quarter. A figure above the baseline of 100 indicates improvement compared to the previous quarter, while a figure below 100 signals deterioration.

By item, out of the top 15 export items, export conditions for three items, including semiconductors, are expected to improve. In particular, semiconductors (191.4) are projected to maintain a supplier-dominant market structure in the second quarter, fueled by aggressive shipment expansion from top-tier smartphone manufacturers and increased demand for high-performance semiconductors driven by the spread of physical and agentic artificial intelligence (AI). Petroleum products (102.9) are also expected to see continued strong export prices due to rising international oil prices following the blockade of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

On the other hand, home appliances (51.3) are expected to underperform due to weakened demand resulting from intensified price competition with China and increased tariff burdens. Likewise, plastics, rubber, and leather products (58.4) are projected to see sluggish exports as the deterioration in Middle Eastern naphtha supply conditions leads to disruptions in the supply of naphtha, a key raw material.

By category, among the 10 survey items, export conditions for five categories—including export price (121.9) and export profitability (119.1)—are anticipated to improve. In particular, export prices posted the largest quarter-on-quarter improvement (+11.4 points), buoyed by positive prospects for semiconductors, ships, and petroleum products.

Export companies cited "rising raw material prices (21.8%)" and "increased logistics costs (20.1%)" as the main obstacles for exports in the second quarter of this year. Both factors were identified as the "top two obstacles" across all items, emerging as the greatest burdens for all industries.

Lee Gwanjae, Senior Researcher at the Korea International Trade Association, stated, "Logistics disruptions and instability in raw material supply due to the Middle East situation could increase the burden on export companies." He emphasized, "To maintain the momentum of export improvement, it is essential to support affected companies with logistics and operating funds, as well as to review vulnerable supply chains and stabilize procurement."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.