Kim Jong Un's Scenario after Observing Iran [Yang Nakkyu's Defence Club]

North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal Makes U.S. Military Action Unlikely
Kim Jong Un Likely to Become Even More Fixated on Nuclear Weapons

Following the U.S. airstrike on Iran, attention is now focused on North Korea's response. Experts on North Korea believe that the United States is unlikely to consider North Korea as its next target. As a result, most analysts expect that Chairman Kim Jong Un will maintain his confidence and become even more fixated on retaining nuclear weapons.

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un visited the new 5,000-ton destroyer "Choe Hyunho," which is set to be commissioned on the 3rd and 4th, to inspect training conditions and observed the test launch of the fleet's strategic cruise missile, according to Korean Central TV on the 5th. Photo by Korean Central TV, Yonhap News Agency

In fact, despite the airstrike on Iran, Kim visited a cement factory in North Hwanghae Province the following day. This behavior contrasts with that of his father. When the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, his father Kim Jong Il remained out of public view for 50 days. Similarly, after the U.S. attack on Afghanistan in 2001, Kim Jong Il suspended public activities for about 25 days. Observers interpret Kim Jong Un’s recent actions as a display of confidence stemming from his possession of nuclear weapons.

Additionally, Chairman Kim Jong Un visited the new 5,000-ton destroyer 'Choe Hyonho', which is scheduled to be commissioned, for two consecutive days, inspecting the training status and observing the test launch of a fleet land-attack strategic cruise missile. This is interpreted as a threat to carry out simultaneous nuclear strikes using Hwasal-series cruise missiles equipped with tactical nuclear warheads in the event of an emergency. Cruise missiles, which can fly at extremely low altitudes and frequently alter their trajectory, are considered more difficult to detect and intercept than ballistic missiles, and when launched from the sea, they are seen as having a considerable element of surprise.

The North Korean Hwasal-series cruise missiles have a maximum range of 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers or more, putting not only South Korea but also most of Japan, including U.S. strategic assets deployed at Okinawa Kadena Air Base, within striking distance.

Confidence Backed by China and Russia

Kim's recent moves are based on the assessment that, unlike Iran, the United States cannot attack North Korea. Ellen Kim, Vice President of Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) in Washington D.C., said at a seminar on the 3rd (local time), "First, North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. Therefore, I think it is much riskier for the United States to choose a military operation option." She also cited "the fact that China and Russia are supporting North Korea" as another reason. Assemblyman Park Jie-won of the Democratic Party of Korea said on MBC radio’s 'Kim Jongbae's Focus' on the 2nd, "From Kim Jong Un’s perspective, 'North Korea is different from Iran—since North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons, no one can attack us.' He is likely to have this level of confidence."

Firm Resolve to Strengthen Regime with Nuclear Weapons

Due to this confidence in nuclear weapons, there are concerns that Kim Jong Un will become even more obsessed with them in the future. In the report on the 9th Party Congress held on February 25, Kim stated, "The country's nuclear force is the fundamental guarantee for the nation's security and interests and a powerful safeguard," and announced plans to upgrade North Korea's nuclear capabilities, with a focus on nuclear weapons development. He showcased both the expansion of the Yongbyon nuclear facility and the construction of additional nuclear sites such as in Kangson as evidence of his intention to bolster the nuclear arsenal domestically and internationally. While North Korea's strategic goal of being recognized as a nuclear-armed state remains unchanged, there is an even firmer resolve to strengthen regime deterrence through nuclear weapons following the precedent set by the removal of Khamenei.

Cho Hanbum, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said on CBS radio's 'Park Sungtae's News Show', "Kim Jong Un likely believes that Khamenei’s fate was a result of lacking nuclear weapons, and thus he will not pursue denuclearization—in fact, his obsession with nuclear weapons will only grow stronger." He also commented, "Still, rather than confronting Trump, he may be inclined to 'at least meet and talk,' entertaining such thoughts."

Likely to Avoid Unnecessary Conflict with the U.S. and Monitor the Situation

It is highly likely that North Korea will maintain a certain level of military tension while taking a wait-and-see approach for the time being. Given the extreme unpredictability of President Trump, avoiding unnecessary conflict and monitoring the situation could be a more advantageous strategy.

Many point to U.S. strategic capacity and priorities as the key variables. If President Trump designates the North Korean nuclear issue as the 'next task', the situation on the Korean Peninsula could change rapidly.

The U.S. May Not Rule Out Striking North Korea After Iran

Assemblyman Ahn Cheolsoo of the People Power Party said, "Once the Iran issue is resolved, next could be North Korea," adding, "It is possible that (President Donald Trump) may not just talk about denuclearization but could physically attempt to replace Kim Jong Un's leadership."

Senior Research Fellow Cho also assessed that North Korea could become a target of U.S. attacks. Since Iran's continued nuclear development and possession of highly enriched uranium were the pretext for the recent military operation, North Korea also fits this criterion. He stated, "North Korea's wrongdoing is a hundred times greater than Iran’s," adding, "North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests and is estimated to possess about 100 nuclear warheads. It is believed to be capable of producing 10 to 20 nuclear warheads per year and also possesses intercontinental ballistic missiles."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.