"Key Issues at China's NPC: Technological Advancement, Trump's Visit, and Pro-Birth Policies - Brookings Institution"

The John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution has highlighted key points to watch at the National People's Congress (NPC), China’s legislative body, which is taking place for about one week starting from March 5, 2026, based on the opinions of various China experts.

The majority of commentary centered around technological advancement and self-reliance, with some experts viewing the event as a political stage for Trump’s upcoming visit and as an opportunity for China to showcase the superiority of its system over American-style democracy. Other notable topics included the strengthening of pro-natalist policies, the institutionalization of party authority through the National Development Planning Law, and the enhanced role of the NPC, which is often depicted as a “rubber stamp.”

The following is a summary of the experts’ perspectives published on the Brookings Institution’s website on March 3, 2026 (local time).

Jonathan A. Chin, Research Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center: “The Significance of This Year’s NPC”

This year’s NPC carries particular significance, as President Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership will officially announce the 15th Five-Year Plan outlining the country’s development trajectory. The plan will lay out Xi’s vision through the early 2030s, emphasizing the promotion of high-tech and advanced manufacturing industries.

The timing is also notable, as the meeting is taking place just before U.S. President Donald Trump is set to visit China to meet with Xi. This will mark the first time a U.S. president has met Xi in China since Trump’s 2017 visit.

The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan will underscore continuity in domestic and economic policies, particularly since Xi is widely expected to secure a fourth term in 2027. However, the meeting is also occurring immediately after the dramatic purge of high-ranking military official Zhang Yuxia, which has been described as the most significant since Xi took power. This juxtaposition highlights the third term of Xi’s leadership as characterized by both policy continuity and political tension.

Margaret M. Pearson, Nonresident Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center: “Economy: Accelerating Technological Advancement and Self-Reliance”

While there may be few surprises in the economic sphere at this year’s NPC, Beijing’s priorities will be made unmistakably clear. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to carry forward the trajectory set by last year’s Fourth Plenum, Central Economic Work Conference, and various provincial congresses.

The core theme is “high-quality growth.” Even if the growth rate slows somewhat, the goal is to upgrade the economic structure around advanced manufacturing. This strategy is also designed with economic security competition with the United States in mind.

The plan is built on two pillars.

First, investment in technology-based upgrading. There will be continued large-scale investment in future technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, nuclear fusion, and 6G mobile communications. Other key areas include new energy, new materials, aerospace, and the “low-altitude economy” (industries operating below 1,000 meters, such as drones and flying taxis). Efforts to integrate AI into traditional industries to boost productivity and environmental sustainability will also proceed in parallel.

Second, strengthening technological self-reliance. U.S. export controls, particularly in semiconductors, have reinforced the necessity for self-sufficiency. Food and energy security are also expected to remain priorities.

Kyle Chan, Research Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center: “Technology as Both Opportunity and Risk”

Technology is a double-edged sword for China.

On one hand, China has become a global leader in fields such as AI, electric vehicles, batteries, autonomous driving, and robotics. It is also rapidly catching up in emerging fields like quantum technology, nuclear fusion, space communications, and biotechnology.

On the other hand, the Chinese leadership perceives its dependence on foreign sources for advanced semiconductors, manufacturing equipment, aircraft engines, operating systems, and chip design software as a significant bottleneck. U.S.-led technology sanctions are pushing China further down the path of self-reliance.

As a result, the new Five-Year Plan is likely to provide a blueprint for strengthening technological innovation capabilities while simultaneously reducing external dependence. In particular, AI and robotics are expected to emerge as core technologies driving productivity across all industries.

Wei Changhao, Research Scholar, Yale Law School: “The ‘National Development Planning Law’ Codifying Party Authority”

The NPC is expected to approve, alongside the Five-Year Plan, the “National Development Planning Law.” This will be the first attempt to legally define the procedures for drafting and implementing the Five-Year Plans.

What stands out is the explicit specification of the Chinese Communist Party’s role at every stage. Party guidelines must be reflected when drafting the plan, and the State Council must obtain approval from the Party’s Central Committee before submitting the plan to the legislature for review.

This development aligns with the recent trend of institutionally strengthening party control over the state, but it also raises concerns that the legislature’s independent oversight functions may be diminished.

Jamie P. Horsley, Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School: “The NPC’s Role Beyond Being a ‘Rubber Stamp’”

The NPC is often regarded as a ceremonial body, but its Standing Committee and specialized committees are engaged in year-round legislative and oversight activities. It has also strengthened supervision in areas such as economic policy, budgeting, government debt, and the management of state-owned assets.

Public participation has expanded as well. Since 2015, over 7,800 local petition offices have been established. Most bills are made public online and go through at least one round of public comment. However, sensitive legislation, such as the 2020 Hong Kong National Security Law and the 2021 Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, were passed without public consultation.

Diana Fu, Nonresident Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center: “Pro-Natalist Policies”

Low birth rates and aging are structural challenges for China. The shift from the one-child policy to two-child and three-child policies has had limited impact.

The government has introduced a new system providing an annual subsidy of about 500 dollars per child under the age of three. The upcoming Five-Year Plan is expected to include measures to expand childcare subsidies, tax credits, insurance, and improvements to parental leave.

However, the structure still subordinates women’s choices to national objectives. Whereas the former one-child policy entailed coercive birth restrictions, new interventions include making access to abortion more difficult and emphasizing neo-Confucian family values.

Genuine pro-natalist reform will require eliminating employment discrimination against women and lifting restrictions on egg freezing and IVF for unmarried women. Yet, in practice, these structural barriers are unlikely to be addressed soon, given the near absence of women in leadership positions.

Ryan Hass, Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center: “A Political Stage for Trump’s Visit to China”

This year’s NPC is expected to serve as a stage for emphasizing China’s image of “order and stability” ahead of President Trump’s visit in April. China will seek to highlight unity and policy continuity, contrasting itself with the perceived chaos of American politics.

Xi Jinping will preside at the center of the podium, overseeing the proceedings as state institutions fall in line with his policy direction. This will symbolize his firm grip on power.

Meanwhile, in the United States, Trump’s tariff policy has been struck down by the Supreme Court; his approval ratings have declined due to immigration policy; his congressional address has devolved into political confrontation; and the risk of midterm election defeat looms large.

Xi’s suggestion at the Busan APEC Summit to schedule Trump’s visit after the NPC is also rooted in this context. The Chinese leadership aims to use the image of national unity to strengthen its negotiating position.

The current situation is also characterized by an increase in visits to China by foreign leaders, a narrowing of the power gap between the U.S. and China, and the fact that the U.S. president is seeking to visit China.

The NPC is thus not simply a venue for announcing legislation and Five-Year Plans, but also a platform for setting diplomatic messages in the lead-up to the U.S.-China summit.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.