[Current Affairs Show] Kim Dongyeon vs. Chu Mi Ae: Will Han Junho Decide the Outcome?

Kim Dongyeon Leads in Polls

Chu Mi Ae Has the Edge Among Party Members

Han Junho Attempts to Turn the Tide

Who will be the Democratic Party candidate for Governor of Gyeonggi Province? According to the overall trend of various public opinion polls, Governor Kim Dongyeon and Assemblywoman Chu Mi-ae are establishing a two-way race. Chasing behind them is Assemblyman Han Junho. Candidates Kwon Chilsung and Yang Kidae are also making efforts to catch up. In the 2022 local elections, Governor Kim narrowly beat Kim Eunhye, the People Power Party candidate, by just 8,403 votes (0.15%). The question is whether he can once again become the Democratic Party candidate this time.

Gyeonggi Province Governor Dongyeon Kim is delivering a greeting on the morning of the 28th of last month during a visit to a company participating in the 4.5-day workweek program in Guri, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Yonhap News

Why did Governor Kim lead Assemblywoman Chu in the opinion polls conducted by local media in Gyeonggi Province right after the Lunar New Year? Several factors are at play: the advantage of being the incumbent governor, his reputation for competence stemming from his experience as a government official, his public reflection on having criticized President Lee Jaemyung as “arrogant” in the past, and his image as a pragmatic moderate who rose from humble beginnings. In particular, his recent actions—such as resolving issues related to improving working conditions for firefighters, ordering the cancellation of the Ilsan KINTEX venue for YouTuber Jeon Hangil, and cracking down on collusion in real estate speculation—have all been positively received. Although the perception that he has favored pro-Moon Jae-in figures while excluding pro-Lee Jaemyung personnel still remains, it is less pronounced than before. President Lee Jaemyung’s push to spread a practical perspective that values competence over factional divides, such as pro-Lee vs. non-Lee, appears to have had an impact. Governor Kim, in particular, enjoys strong support from moderates and independents, as well as from people in their 20s and those in their 60s and 70s.

On the 7th, during the full meeting of the Legislation and Judiciary Committee held at the National Assembly, Chu Mi-ae, Chairwoman of the Committee from the Democratic Party (left), and Na Kyung-won, member of the People Power Party, shook hands. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

However, the story is different when looking only at Democratic Party supporters. Assemblywoman Chu Mi-ae is leading in this context. By age group, Chu has strong support among those in their 40s and 50s, who tend to back the Democratic Party. Therefore, the primary point of interest in the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial primary is whether Governor Kim can win the support of the party base. The Democratic Party selects its final candidate with 50% of the vote from dues-paying members and 50% from a “safe number” survey. The group surveyed for the “safe number” 50% is not the general public, but Democratic Party supporters and independents. This means the situation is not necessarily advantageous for Governor Kim. Additionally, Assemblywoman Chu receives a 10% gender bonus added to her total votes, which is another disadvantage for Governor Kim. To win, he must widen the vote gap by more than that margin.

Assemblymen Chan-dae Park and Junho Han are having a conversation at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on June 13, 2025. Photo by Hyunmin Kim

Assemblyman Han Junho is making every effort to break out of his current stagnation in the polls, and if Governor Kim and Assemblywoman Chu end up facing each other in a runoff, the direction of the votes from Han’s supporters is likely to determine the outcome. Among Han’s supporters who say they will back Governor Kim, the argument is that Assemblywoman Chu is closely allied with Jeong Cheolrae and would be difficult to control. On the other hand, those who intend to support Chu point to Governor Kim’s history of excluding pro-Lee Jaemyung figures. Given the current situation, the competition between Kim and Chu to win over Han’s supporters is likely to intensify further behind the scenes. Of course, Assemblyman Han is reportedly attempting a “turnaround,” having met several times recently with Kim Yong, former deputy head of the Democratic Research Institute and a close associate of President Lee Jaemyung, and with plenty of time remaining, there is still a possibility that the race dynamic could change.

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This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.