[Click e-Stock] "Global Tax Free at a Turning Point in Global Expansion... Time to Focus on Upside Momentum"

On February 5, SK Securities analyzed that Global Tax Free is moving out of a period of share-price weakness and entering a re-rating phase, backed by its earnings and global expansion.

Heo Seonjae, a researcher at SK Securities, said, "The current share price of Global Tax Free has fallen by about 35% from the 2025 peak of 7,830 won, but the main issues that triggered the decline have already been fully reflected," adding, "It is now time to focus more on upside momentum than on downside risk."

As the background for the share-price correction, Heo cited concerns about earnings deterioration due to the expiry of the value-added tax refund scheme for foreign cosmetic surgery patients, as well as a decline in capital market confidence stemming from the announcement and subsequent withdrawal of a rights offering during the process of changing the largest shareholder. However, he stressed that "these issues appear to be already fully priced into the current share price," and that a shift in perspective is needed.

In terms of earnings, he assessed that the company’s fundamental strength is being confirmed. Heo said, "January results are estimated to show monthly revenue growth of more than 20% year-on-year despite the gap created by the end of cosmetic surgery refunds," explaining, "The simultaneous increase in the number of inbound tourists to Korea and the rise in per-capita spending appear to have lifted the fundamental strength of the domestic business to a higher level." He judged that, despite the short-term variable of institutional changes, the competitiveness of the core business is being demonstrated in the numbers.

He also positively evaluated the fact that the global expansion momentum is now in full swing. He stated, "Starting with the equity investment from Planet, the world’s No. 2 player, completed on February 4, this year is expected to mark the first year of overseas expansion into markets such as Japan, Singapore, and Thailand." In particular, the Japanese market is being highlighted as a mid- to long-term growth driver.

Global Tax Free attracted an equity investment of 5.5 million euros for a 49.9% stake in its Japanese subsidiary from Planet, establishing a strategic partnership. Heo evaluated, "This partnership targets the timing when a new market will open with the full implementation of Japan’s post-refund scheme in November," adding, "The strategy is to preempt the initial market by combining the company’s local infrastructure, already in place through its early entry and operations in Japan, with Planet’s global luxury brand network and the network of about 400,000 affiliated merchants of its domestic-currency-settlement (DCC) partner credit card companies."

He also emphasized the potential of the Japanese market. "If the company successfully secures an early lead in the market, it is expected to generate tax-refund performance that exceeds its domestic results," he analyzed, noting, "The number of foreign tourists to Japan is more than twice that of Korea, and total tourism spending is also about eight times larger."

Expectations for the Southeast Asian market are also rising. Heo said, "In both Singapore and Thailand, the bidding results are expected to be confirmed within the second quarter of this year, and if the company is selected, it will see a sharp increase in earnings from 2027." In the case of Singapore, he explained that the scope of business could expand beyond existing in-store refund agency services and airport refund operations to include a central system covering refund approval and settlement. Regarding Thailand, he evaluated it as "a country where the number of foreign tourists per year is about twice that of Korea, while the tax-refund infrastructure remains at an early stage, leaving very substantial room for market growth."

Heo concluded, "We are now in a phase where clear earnings improvement and multiple expansion are becoming visible," and forecast, "If this is further supported by tangible shareholder-friendly policies that align with the government’s recent strong policy stance, including amendments to the Commercial Act, the meaningful recovery of corporate value driven by the removal of the share-price discount will accelerate."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.