Kyungnam University Institute of Far Eastern Studies Holds 76th Unification Strategy Forum

Under the Theme: "A Turbulent Transition Period, Reorganization of Order and the Korean Peninsula"

The Kyungnam University Institute of Far Eastern Studies held the 76th Unification Strategy Forum on December 11 at the Unification Hall Jeongsan Hall, under the theme "A Turbulent Transition Period: Reorganization of Order and the Korean Peninsula."

The forum was divided into four subtopics, with presentations and discussions focusing on the reorganization of the international order, changes and prospects for the situation on the Korean Peninsula, and related issues.

Kyungnam University Institute of Far Eastern Studies 76th Unification Strategy Forum.

The first session, "Assessing Inter-Korean Relations: The Two-State Theory and Unification Discourse," featured a presentation by Lee Kidong, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, and a discussion by Kim Sangbeom, Professor at the Kyungnam University Institute of Far Eastern Studies.

Lee Kidong diagnosed that Kim Jong Un has structured the resumption of inter-Korean relations as a high-threshold process by setting three conditions of "hostility" (renunciation of absorption-based unification, suspension of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and strategic assets, and prohibition of denuclearization references). He warned of the risk that defining "sovereign exercise areas" could escalate border disputes in the West Sea (NLL), and proposed institutionalizing peaceful coexistence as a topic for discussion.

In response, Professor Kim Sangbeom argued that the "two hostile states at war" theory is a power strategy that erases the middle ground for dialogue and compromise, thereby entrenching confrontation. He emphasized the need for South Korea to pursue proactive, national interest-based crisis management, to strengthen leverage with China, and to reconstruct unification discourse around national interests.

The second session, "Reorganization of U.S.-China Strategic Competition and Supply Chain Upheaval," included a presentation by Park Hanjin, Adjunct Professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Graduate School of International and Area Studies, and a discussion by Yang Pyungseob, Visiting Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

Adjunct Professor Park Hanjin viewed the competition not as a trade conflict but as the institutionalization of "mutual deterrence" through technology, standards, and supply chains. He pointed out that single points of failure (SPF) in semiconductor/AI supply chains-such as EDA, EUV, CoWoS, and HBM-have become security infrastructure risks. He argued that the response should be "design," not just "forecast," and proposed managing 2026 with a 3×3 scenario matrix and 15 transition signals (early warnings), as well as a "full-scenario" strategic portfolio that simultaneously coordinates industry, trade, technology, diplomacy, and security.

In response, Visiting Research Fellow Yang Pyungseob assessed that, amid systemic clashes, the reality is trending toward repeated small deals and the entrenchment of strategic decoupling in sensitive technologies. As solutions, he emphasized the institutionalization of South Korea's decisive leverage through a shift to "security with the U.S., economy with others," red/yellow/green box cooperation management, and upgrading free trade agreements.

The third session, "Restoration of North Korea-China Relations and Closer North Korea-China-Russia Ties," featured a presentation by Doo Jinho, Director of the Eurasia Research Center at the Korea National Strategy Institute, and a discussion by Lee Sangsook, Professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

Director Doo Jinho evaluated Kim Jong Un's visit to China for Victory Day on September 3, 2025, as a signal of restored North Korea-China relations since 2019, but cautioned that interpreting this as the institutionalization of a North Korea-China-Russia trilateral alliance would be an overstatement. He analyzed that the three countries are forming a "loose coalition" based on identity, institutions, and leadership, with each acting according to its own interests: North Korea seeks bargaining power, China aims to counterbalance Russia, and Russia pursues diplomatic space.

Professor Lee Sangsook agreed but pointed out that additional factors should be considered, such as elements of economic cooperation, differences in threat perception, the possibility of conflict between North Korea-China and North Korea-Russia treaties, and the limitations of North Korea-China security cooperation. She especially stressed that the absence of references to denuclearization should not be hastily interpreted as recognition of North Korea's status as a nuclear-armed state.

The fourth session, "The Nuclear Issue on the Korean Peninsula in the Trump 2.0 Era," included a presentation by Lee Sanghyun, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute, and a discussion by Chung Jaewook, Professor at the Kyungnam University Institute of Far Eastern Studies.

Senior Research Fellow Lee Sanghyun characterized Trump 2.0 as a regression to 19th-century great power politics and emphasized that, since North Korea's nuclear issue is not the top priority for the United States in a post-hegemonic environment, South Korea's proactive deterrence and engagement are crucial. He also suggested that the END (Extended Nuclear Deterrence) initiative is likely to result in a realistic strategy of nuclear threat management and gradual denuclearization.

In response, Professor Chung Jaewook evaluated the approval of nuclear submarines as a political signal, but noted that there are many variables for realization, including a 10-year timeline, regime change, revision of the nuclear cooperation agreement, and issues with construction sites. He stressed that, since nuclear submarines could heighten regional tensions, their acquisition should be carefully considered based on whether they would substantively contribute to strategic stability on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia, rather than simply possessing them.

Director Lee Gwanse, who organized the Unification Strategy Forum, commented, "Amid a turbulent transition period and the accelerating reorganization of the international order, this was an opportunity to comprehensively examine the direction and ripple effects of changes surrounding the Korean Peninsula and to form a consensus on policy responses." He added, "By discussing key issues such as inter-Korean relations and unification discourse, U.S.-China strategic competition and supply chain changes, restoration of North Korea-China relations and North Korea-China-Russia cooperation, and the nuclear issue in the Trump 2.0 era from multiple perspectives, the forum provided meaningful insights for the South Korean government's future North Korea policy and foreign and security strategy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.