Sharp Decline in School-Age Population... Regional Universities Face Crisis Beyond Collapse, Threatening Local Community Disappearance

Moonsoo Kim Releases National Assembly Audit Policy Report
18-Year-Old Population Projected to Halve by 2045
"University Quota Reductions Inevitable... Shift Needed Toward Mutual Cooperation"

Moonsoo Kim, Member of the Democratic Party of Korea.

It is predicted that by 2045, the number of 18-year-olds eligible for university admission will drop sharply to 230,000, which is half of the current level, raising alarms across the country's universities. Over the past 15 years, university enrollment quotas at regional universities have decreased three times faster than those in the Seoul metropolitan area, fueling concerns that the serious concentration in the capital region is accelerating the decline in the school-age population.

Moonsoo Kim, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea (representing Suncheon, Gwangyang, Gokseong, and Gurye Gap in South Jeolla Province), on October 30 released a National Assembly audit policy report titled "Directions for Shared Enrollment Quotas and Financial Support in Response to the Decline in the School-Age Population," which was prepared by the University Education Research Institute at his request.

The report pointed out that "the government's regional university restructuring policy is being implemented with a focus on the Seoul metropolitan area, rapidly weakening the foundation of regional universities," and raised concerns about the possible disappearance of local communities.

In fact, between 2010 and 2025, the total national university enrollment quota decreased by 122,000 (-21.4%), with about 80% of this reduction concentrated in regional universities. While universities in the Seoul metropolitan area saw an 11.8% decrease, those outside the capital region experienced a reduction of nearly 30%.

In particular, universities in the Gangwon region (-32.7%), Jeju region (-32.6%), Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region (-30.1%), and Honam region (-29.8%) suffered significant blows, with decreases of around 30%.

Kim criticized, "The proportion of university enrollment quotas in the Seoul metropolitan area increased from 36% in 2010 to 40% in 2025," adding, "The reduction in regional university quotas is directly accelerating the disappearance of local communities."

The University Education Research Institute warned of a financial crisis for universities, analyzing that if undergraduate enrollment quotas decrease by 50% around 2045, private universities' tuition revenue could fall by as much as 3.8 trillion won in the fourth year. The institute further pointed out that if the government does not provide financial compensation to universities with reduced quotas, not only regional universities but also lower-ranked universities in the capital area will face difficulties surviving.

As alternatives to overcome the crisis, Kim proposed the following: a shared enrollment quota system between metropolitan and regional universities; expanding the number of adult learners and international students; and supporting the gradual restructuring of underperforming universities. He emphasized, "While reducing quotas is inevitable, universities must shift from meaningless competition to a structure of mutual coexistence."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.