China Opens 4th Plenary Session, Unveils Economic Blueprint Amid Tariff War

Economic Blueprint to Be Unveiled Ahead of U.S.-China Summit
Focus Also on High-Level Personnel Changes

The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which will outline the direction of China’s economic policy for the next five years, is being held from October 20 to October 23, 2025, in Beijing, China. As the U.S.-China summit approaches, with the trade war intensifying once again and domestic demand remaining sluggish, uncertainty is growing both internally and externally. The 4th Plenary Session is expected to present an economic blueprint for the next five years. Additionally, attention is focused on high-level personnel appointments, including the Central Military Commission, which has been effectively halved due to vacant seats and a series of dismissals.

The term "Plenary Session" refers to the full meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. The 4th Plenary Session is the fourth of seven such meetings held during the Central Committee’s five-year term.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is delivering a speech at the 3rd Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party held at Jingxi Hotel in Beijing on July 18, 2024. Photo by Xinhua News Agency

The core agenda of this session is the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which will serve as the blueprint for China’s economy over the next five years. Traditionally, the 4th Plenary Session focuses on political direction and personnel reshuffling, while the 5th Plenary Session addresses the Five-Year Plan. However, since the previous 3rd Plenary Session was held later than expected, both the political direction and the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to be discussed together at this 4th Plenary Session.

According to the World Bank, China’s economic growth rate for this year is projected to be 4.8%, slightly below the government’s target of “around 5%.” Since the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, the trade war has intensified, and China has faced chronic domestic challenges such as sluggish domestic demand and a real estate slump. Expanding corporate spending, promoting investment, and curbing overproduction have emerged as major economic tasks. The Associated Press also reported that China may announce its vision to become a global leader in key technology sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI).

Ning Zhang, Senior China Economist at UBS, predicted that China could increase spending on advanced technology as it seeks to reduce its dependence on Western countries for advanced computer chips and promote self-sufficiency. She also noted that it will not be easy for China to maintain a robust economic growth rate of 4% to 5% over the next decade, emphasizing the need to demonstrate efforts to achieve economic growth targets in order to maintain the legitimacy of the ruling party.

According to U.S. business media outlet CNBC, authorities are likely to focus on institutional reforms to boost domestic demand rather than implementing a comprehensive policy shift, and are expected to provide additional support for the semiconductor, artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics sectors.

High-level personnel changes and organizational restructuring are also expected, including the Central Military Commission, which has been effectively halved due to vacant seats and a series of dismissals and purges.

On October 17, 2025, China’s Ministry of National Defense stripped nine senior officials, including He Weidong, the third-ranking vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Miao Hua, the former head of the Central Military Commission’s Political Work Department and fifth in the military hierarchy, of their party and military membership on charges of corruption. As a result, only four members remain on the Central Military Commission, which is supposed to have seven: President Xi Jinping, Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, and members Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin.

The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported that at least nine Central Committee members are expected to be replaced due to corruption investigations and deaths, predicting the largest reshuffle since 2017.

However, based on precedent, most analysts believe that there will not be a sweeping personnel overhaul or drastic organizational restructuring.

The main decisions of the 4th Plenary Session will be announced in a communiqu? on the final day of the meeting, October 23, 2025. However, since the 4th Plenary Session is held behind closed doors, detailed information is expected to be officially released at the National People’s Congress in March next year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.