Ruling and Opposition Parties, Arguments for 'Dismissal vs Acceptance' of Impeachment Ahead of Yoon's Verdict?

Ruling Party: "Prolonged Deliberation, Lee Jaemyung's Acquittal as a Variable"
Opposition: "Difficult to Deny All Five Grounds for Impeachment"

As the Constitutional Court set the date for the impeachment trial verdict of President Yoon Seok-yeol on the 4th, both ruling and opposition parties expressed optimism about the trial outcome, each citing their own grounds. The People Power Party viewed the Constitutional Court's prolonged deliberation?the longest period in an impeachment case?as a positive signal for dismissal. On the other hand, the Democratic Party predicted that it is unlikely that all key issues cited by the National Assembly as grounds for impeachment, including President Yoon's December 3 emergency martial law declaration, will be dismissed.

According to political circles on the 2nd, the People Power Party points to two main reasons for anticipating the Constitutional Court's dismissal or rejection of President Yoon's impeachment: the prolonged deliberation and the acquittal of Lee Jae-myung in his second trial on election law violations. First, the fact that the constitutional justices have deliberated for over a month on the impeachment suggests a deadlock in reaching a consensus. When President Yoon was impeached on December 14 last year, the court was initially expected to issue a removal verdict, but the extended deliberation has led to considering various possibilities.

President Yoon Suk-yeol is attending the 10th impeachment trial hearing held at the Constitutional Court in Jongno-gu, Seoul on the 20th. 2025.02.20 Photo by Joint Press Corps

Currently, there are eight constitutional justices presiding over President Yoon's impeachment trial. The quorum required to decide in favor of impeachment ('acceptance') is six justices. If five or fewer justices vote for acceptance, President Yoon will receive a dismissal or rejection ruling. Ultimately, if only three justices decide to dismiss or reject the impeachment, President Yoon will effectively return to office. The Constitutional Court's previous dismissal of the impeachment against Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, which was split 5 (dismissal) to 2 (rejection) to 1 (acceptance), also serves as a basis for predicting dismissal in President Yoon's case.

The ruling party also expects the possibility of rejection based on procedural flaws in the impeachment process. Rejection is a legal act that terminates the trial without judgment on the content when the submitted complaint fails to meet procedural requirements due to formal defects. The Constitutional Court will apply this if four or more justices express opinions for rejection in this impeachment trial. The ruling party points to the National Assembly's withdrawal of the charge of treason under criminal law as a procedural flaw and a core illegality. People Power Party lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun supports this claim, stating, "The result is naturally dismissal or rejection. There is no evidence at all regarding the treason charge."

The acquittal of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung in his second trial on public official election law violations is also seen as a positive variable for the dismissal of President Yoon's impeachment. Although the trials of Lee and President Yoon are not directly related, there is an expectation that the court will seek political balance. For example, since the court acquitted Lee considering political repercussions, there is hope that President Yoon will also receive a dismissal or rejection verdict.

Kwon Seong-dong, floor leader of the People Power Party, is attending the floor strategy meeting held at the National Assembly on April 1, 2025. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

Democrats: "Acceptance Certain... Difficult to Deny All Grounds for Impeachment"

On the other hand, the opposition, including the Democratic Party, does not doubt the possibility of impeachment acceptance. The National Assembly, led by the opposition, presented five main grounds for President Yoon's impeachment: specifically, ▲ unconstitutional and illegal declaration of emergency martial law ▲ unconstitutional issuance of Martial Law Proclamation No. 1 ▲ obstruction and attempted takeover of National Assembly activities ▲ attempted takeover of the National Election Commission ▲ orders to arrest politicians and legal professionals.

The Democratic Party believes it will be legally difficult for the Constitutional Court to dismiss or reject all five issues. If the court recognizes even one of these as a violation of the constitution or law, President Yoon is likely to be removed from office. Among these, the key issue is whether the December 3 emergency martial law qualifies as a 'national emergency.' The constitution stipulates that martial law conditions require a state of war, armed conflict, or an equivalent national emergency necessitating military forces.

The Democratic Party argues that President Yoon's December 3 martial law declaration does not meet the conditions for martial law. They also contend that procedural requirements for martial law were ignored, citing that President Yoon did not seek deliberation from cabinet members at the time of the declaration.

A senior Democratic Party lawmaker emphasized in a phone interview, "If the National Assembly had declared the martial law legitimate and its repeal illegal immediately after December 3, would the public have remained silent? Considering that most public opinion polls after the martial law show support for impeachment, the illegality of the martial law is evident."

The Constitutional Court will hold the verdict session for President Yoon's impeachment trial at 11 a.m. on the 4th in the grand courtroom. This comes 38 days after the conclusion of the oral arguments on February 25 and the start of the justices' deliberations.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the second trial sentencing hearing on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act at the Seoul High Court in Seocho-gu, Seoul on the 26th. 2025.3.26 Photo by Joint Press Corps

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.