"Acceleration of North Korean Nuclear Threat... Need for a Three-Stage Nuclear Balance Strategy"

Seoul Defense Forum Holds Nuclear Strategy Seminar at National Assembly

In response to North Korea's nuclear threat, there has been a call for South Korea to establish a three-stage nuclear balance strategy consisting of nuclear sharing, nuclear potential, and nuclear armament. The Seoul Defense Forum (SDF) held a seminar titled "Our Nuclear Strategy in Response to the Realization of the North Korean Nuclear Threat" on the 20th at the National Assembly, co-hosted with the office of Assemblyman Lim Jong-deuk of the People Power Party.

On the 25th, news about North Korea launching two short-range ballistic missiles was broadcast on a TV in the waiting room of Seoul Station. Photo by Heo Younghan younghan@

At the seminar, concerns were raised that the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration might pursue a small deal with North Korea through negotiations, effectively 'passing over' South Korea. Professor Song Seung-jong of Daejeon University stated, "There is a strong view that instead of the failed denuclearization talks during Trump's first term, the administration is likely to pursue a small deal involving nuclear disarmament in exchange for sanctions relief. In such a case, it would open the gates of hell for us as nuclear hostages."

The atmosphere suggests that North Korea's nuclear threat against the South is accelerating. Jeong Seong-jang, Director of the Korea Chair at the Sejong Institute's Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy, said, "North Korea conducting tactical nuclear weapon drills against the non-nuclear state of South Korea and pushing for exponential production of nuclear warheads means that North Korea's nuclear weapons go far beyond mere deterrence. North Korea will continue to raise the level of its nuclear threat to maintain overwhelming military superiority over the South," he emphasized.

Choi Seung-woo, Director of the SDF Center for North Korean Nuclear Response Policy, argued that to overcome the current situation, a three-stage nuclear balance strategy of ▲nuclear sharing ▲nuclear potential ▲nuclear armament should be pursued. Nuclear sharing refers to the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, nuclear sharing agreements within multilateral security frameworks, and bilateral U.S.-South Korea nuclear sharing agreements. According to Director Choi, this is a short-term strategy feasible within the framework of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The second stage is to develop nuclear potential. Similar to Japan's case, this means acquiring the capability to produce nuclear weapons within a short period in an emergency. This is also possible within the NPT framework and is expected to require long-term preparation amid a strengthening U.S.-South Korea alliance. The final stage is nuclear armament. Since nuclear armament involving withdrawal from the NPT is expected to provoke opposition from neighboring countries, managing the U.S.-South Korea alliance is essential.

Director Choi stated, "South Korea has reached the limit of patience due to North Korea's blatant nuclear threats against the South," adding, "South Korea's nuclear capability not only contributes to U.S. energy security and offshore balancing in the Indo-Pacific region but ultimately offers a fundamental solution to North Korea's involvement in international conflicts."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.