[MarketING] KOSPI Expected to Rebound After Risk Resolution

With the Lunar New Year holiday causing the stock market to open for only one day last week, attention is focused on the stock market movements this week (February 3-7). After reflecting major global issues that occurred during the holiday all at once on January 31, the market fell, but it is expected to seek a rebound this week.

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Last week, the KOSPI fell by 0.77% and the KOSDAQ by 0.06%. Ji-won Kim, a researcher at KB Securities, explained, "The market declined reflecting several events during the holiday, including the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the emergence of deep-sea issues, and big tech (large information technology companies) earnings announcements." He added, "Due to concerns over weakened market dominance caused by the deep-sea emergence, NVIDIA plunged more than 15% during the holiday, increasing volatility among U.S. big tech companies. Domestically, SK Hynix, which supplies high-performance high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to NVIDIA, fell by about 9%, and Samsung Electronics also declined by about 2%, showing a simultaneous weakness among AI hardware companies."

The stock market is expected to be influenced by the Trump administration's tariff policies and deep-sea issues for the time being. Researcher Kim said, "Both domestic and international stock markets will fluctuate under the influence of the Trump administration's tariff policies, such as the 25% tariff imposed on Canada and Mexico, and deep-sea issues for the time being."

Jung-hwan Na, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "February is packed with various events such as the Trump administration's tariffs, manufacturing indicators, and big tech earnings, so it is necessary to maintain caution."

There is a forecast that volatility in the KOSPI will inevitably increase due to the semiconductor decline. Kyung-min Lee, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, "Volatility in the KOSPI is inevitable due to the sharp drop in semiconductors. However, sectors such as internet, finance, food and beverages, and essential consumer goods showed differentiated rebounds, and the fear caused by deep-sea issues was limited to semiconductor and power equipment-related stocks. After digesting concerns about growth speed and momentum slowdown, a resumption of the rise is possible."

If risks are resolved, a gradual recovery is expected to continue. Dong-gil Noh, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "Four risks?the Trump tariff policy, China's maintenance of low-priced export policies, the slowdown in the pace of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, and the possibility of a change in leading stocks due to the emergence of deep-sea issues?will remain in February and may hinder a rapid rebound immediately. However, if these four risks are resolved, a gradual recovery will continue."

Key schedules for this week include the release of China's January Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing on the 3rd; U.S. January ADP private employment on the 5th; U.S. January ISM Services on the 6th; and the U.S. January Employment Report on the 7th.

Earnings announcements from major U.S. companies will also continue. Palantir will report on the 3rd; Alphabet, AMD, PayPal, Merck, and Pfizer on the 4th; Walt Disney, Ford, and Qualcomm on the 5th; and Amazon and Eli Lilly on the 6th.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.