President Yoon's Party Under Detention Ranks 'No.1 in Approval Ratings'... What Happened in the Polls? [Political Spotlight]

People Power Party Leads in Major Polls Including Realmeter, Gallup, and NBS
Analysis Points to Distortion Due to Overrepresentation of Conservatives
Calls for Addressing Limitations and Improving Polling Methods

The political world is on high alert over the phenomenon of the People Power Party's approval ratings soaring amid the current president's arrest and ongoing impeachment trial. While some view this as a result of conservative-leaning respondents being overrepresented in polls, similar trends have appeared in major surveys.

On the 21st, the Democratic Party's "Special Committee on Poll Verification and System Improvement" plans to hold a meeting to review recent polling trends. The Democratic Party had previously resolved to form this special committee during a high-level strategy meeting the day before. They intend to analyze recent polling trends and verify whether there has been any distortion or manipulation.

The Democratic Party's active involvement in this polling issue, which can be seen as a kind of report card, stems from a series of poll results. In a Realmeter poll released the previous day (commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper, conducted on the 16th and 17th with 1,004 nationwide respondents aged 18 and older, using 97% wireless and 3% landline automated response methods; detailed information is available on the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website), the People Power Party recorded a support rate of 46.5%, while the Democratic Party stood at 39.0%. The People Power Party's lead was outside the margin of error. In telephone interview polls conducted by Korea Gallup and the National Barometer Survey (NBS), the gap in support rates was within the margin of error, but the People Power Party still showed an advantage. This is an unusual situation where the ruling party's approval rating rises despite the sitting president being arrested on charges of rebellion and under investigation.

Hwang Jeong-ah, a member of the Democratic Party's poll special committee, pointed out, "Recent polls show that conservative respondents are overrepresented," adding, "The sample differences are large, making it difficult to say that current polls reflect the overall opinion." Conservative respondents tend to actively respond to polls and want to express their opinions, whereas progressive respondents are less motivated to participate in polls due to developments such as the arrest of President Yoon Seok-yeol. The polling industry notes that unlike the 'shy conservative' phenomenon during former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment eight years ago?when conservative voters remained silent but later expressed their views through votes?this time there is a 'shouting conservative' phenomenon where conservatives are actively voicing their opinions. Higher-than-usual response rates reflect the voices of these actively responding conservatives.

However, separate from the content of the polls, there is also analysis in political circles that this reflects a wariness of the Democratic Party's dominance. Cho Seung-rae, the Democratic Party's chief spokesperson, said on KBS radio, "It cannot be simply dismissed as overrepresentation," and added, "We are deeply considering how to respond." Growing resentment toward the Democratic Party's dominance and resistance to Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung's presidential campaign are also cited as contributing factors.

There are also calls for fundamental reform of the polling system itself. Yoo Kyung-joon, a former head of the Statistics Korea and ex-People Power Party lawmaker, said in a phone interview, "Recent polls show that the two major parties' support rates exceed 80%, which is hard to believe reflects the entire population," adding, "The underrepresentation of the moderate middle group seems unresolved. A solution for this is needed."

An anonymous industry insider said, "In the U.S., polling has already evolved to include modeling and variables that the general public cannot easily understand, with weighting applied and other changes," adding, "In our case, the Poll Deliberation Commission imposes regulations, but this approach does not properly reflect reality."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.