[Click eStock] "Political Instability and Decline in US Negotiation Power... Exchange Rate Forecast for Q1 Next Year Revised Upward"

Korea Investment & Securities on the 17th stated, "Reflecting Korea's political risks and concerns over weakened negotiating power with the U.S.," it has revised its forecast for the KRW-USD exchange rate for the first quarter of next year upward from 1350 won to 1400 won.

On the same day, Moon Daun, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, "In addition to political instability triggered by the declaration of martial law and the impeachment vote, there are concerns about weakened negotiating power due to the lack of leadership in the Korean government during the early Trump administration. This will act as a unique downward pressure on the Korean won."

On the 14th, the National Assembly passed the impeachment motion against President Yoon Seok-yeol. Researcher Moon said, "With the impeachment motion passing in the second vote, concerns about a second martial law or prolonged impeachment vote have eased," but added, "However, during the final ruling process by the Constitutional Court (which can take up to 180 days), a high level of caution regarding political instability will still be maintained."

He predicted, "The KRW-USD exchange rate has formed a short-term resistance line around 1440 won, and it will remain above 1400 won through the rest of the year," adding, "The average exchange rate for the fourth quarter of this year will close slightly higher than the previous forecast of 1385 won, around 1390 won."

He further stated, "The downward pressure on the Korean won will gradually ease toward the end of the first quarter of next year as orderly resolution of political instability occurs," and added, "The exchange rate path after the second quarter will be adjusted reflecting the base from the previous quarter and the expected global dollar trend, while maintaining a pattern of higher highs and lower lows."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.