"Close Russia-Ukraine Ties Won't Last Long... Economic Recovery Impossible Without Social Ideology and Structural Changes"

Il-gyu Lee, Former North Korean Ambassador to Cuba
Current Affairs Special Lecture Hosted by Korea Industrial Federation Forum
"North Korea's Economy is Devastated... Industrial Base Collapsed"
"Kim Jong-un's 20x10 Policy and Others Will Fail"

Former North Korean Ambassador to Cuba and well-known "defector diplomat" Il-gyu Lee emphasized at the "Korea Industrial Alliance Forum (KIAF) Current Affairs Lecture" held on the morning of the 6th at the Automobile Hall Grandeur Ballroom that although the close relationship between North Korea and Russia may partially breach international sanctions on North Korea and allow Pyongyang some respite, "it is uncertain how long this close relationship will last." Regarding North Korea's stagnant economy, he argued that "without ideological and structural changes in North Korean society, economic recovery is impossible."

Former Ambassador to Cuba, Il-gyu Lee. Photo by Korea Industrial Federation Forum

On that day, Lee gave a lecture titled "The Current State of the North Korean Economy and Its Implications" to an audience of over 80 industry figures from sectors including automobiles, batteries, petrochemicals, and engineering.

He described present-day North Korea as "one of the poorest countries in the world, with the livelihoods of its people unimaginably destitute," noting that "with the operation of the 'jangmadang' (marketplaces), the loyalty of residents to the Kim family and the spirit of collectivism have been diluted, and individualism has spread." The jangmadang refers to a form of private economy that began operating during the rule of former State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il, when it was judged that the state could no longer be responsible for the people's livelihoods. Lee also added, "During Kim Jong-un's tenure as State Affairs Commission Chairman, North Korea's industrial base has been completely dismantled, and production has fallen to nearly zero."

He continued, "Since 2012, when Kim Jong-un set a goal to transition from an import-dependent economy to a production-based economy, control over the jangmadang was strengthened and the level of terror politics increased, leading to a temporary significant improvement and stabilization of North Korea's socio-economic atmosphere." However, he pointed out that this positive trend could not be sustained due to major economic policies monopolized by the party and military agencies, border closure policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the cessation of smuggling of raw materials and supplies from China.

Regarding the "20x10 policy," led by Kim Jong-un, which selects 20 counties annually to establish industrial factories aimed at stabilizing the basic living standards of residents using local specialty products, Lee viewed its success as "highly unlikely." He criticized that "even if local industrial factories are established, it is difficult to guarantee factory equipment and impossible to secure the raw materials and supplies necessary for normal operation." He also stated, "The most important factor is that without guaranteeing proper compensation for labor, labor efficiency cannot be expected."

Furthermore, Lee predicted that "although Kim Jong-un has emphasized a cabinet-responsible system where the cabinet comprehensively manages the national economy, the orientation of the special economy is the maintenance of the Kim Jong-un regime, the Kim family's indulgence, and the development of defense capabilities such as nuclear and missile programs, so it will never be realized."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.